Friday, September 27, 2019

2019 NFL Picks Week #4

Thursday Night Football has been unkind to me. I have gotten every one of them wrong except for Opening Night. As a consequence, my record stands at:

22-23 against the spread

31-18 in the W/L column

Week 4:

Panthers @ Texans (-3.5): I was and am very tempted to make this my upset pick of the week. The Panthers defense is more than capable of getting to Deshaun Watson and the Panthers offensively were good last week. But I don't trust Kyle Allen that much yet. I will play it cautiously

Points: Panthers
Victory: Texans

Browns @ Ravens (-6.5): This is desperation time for the Browns. They HAVE to put up a good performance otherwise all that hype will have been for nothing. That's why this spread is a bit too big for me.

Points: Browns
Victory: Ravens

Redskins @ Giants (-3): This is right on the edge for me. Washington has some players that can kill the Giants, but Danny Dimes is at home for the first time. I think that will carry the day slightly

Points: Giants
Victory: Giants

Chargers (-14.5) @ Dolphins: If they were at home, I would gladly take the Chargers points, but the WC team on the EC bothers me a bit. I think it's a bit closer that the spread

Points: Dolphins
Victory: Chargers

Raiders @ Colts (-6.5): Frank Reich has done a remarkable job with this Colts team and I have doubted them early. Therefore I am going to jump on board the Brissett express.

Points: Colts
Victory: Colts

Chiefs (-7) @ Lions: Suspicious line from Vegas, but I think Mahomes is good enough to beat any suspicion

Points: Chiefs
Victory: Chiefs

Pats (-7) @ Bills: Line here is very important. The push rule is also very important here. I think the Bills will keep it competitive but give me the Pats to beat them by a TD or more

Points: Pats
Victory: Pats

Titans @ Falcons (-3.5): The shine of that Cleveland game is losing its luster a little bit and the Falcons are at home in the dome. Gimme the birds

Points: Falcons
Victory: Falcons

Buccaneers @ Rams (-9.5): This line scares me a little bit because IDK if the Rams really have the put the pedal to the floor aspect to their team, but I will take these points cautiously.

Points: Rams
Victory: Rams

Seahawks (-5.5) @ Cardinals: Seattle should be playing pissed after getting beaten at home by the Saints. I think they blow out Arizona

Points: Seahawks
Victory: Seahawks

Vikings @ Bears (-2): PICK'EM!!!!!!!!!!! Bears impressed me a little bit last week and they had Minnesota's number last year. And they're at home. Give me the Bears

Victory: Bears

Jaguars @ Broncos (-3): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The mustached bandit Gardner Minshew is used to playing in the high altitudes of the Rockies coming from Washington State. And I don't believe the Broncos have the firepower to take advantage of Jalen Ramsey being out, if he is out. Jags get a big win on the road

Points: Jaguars
Victory: Jaguars

Cowboys (-2.5) @ Saints: I thought about taking the Saints in the dome, but Jerry World is kind of a dome so I don't see Dallas being intimidated. And the Saints may be due for a letdown

Points: Cowboys
Victory: Cowboys

Bengals @ Steelers (-3.5): Mason Rudolph impressed last week against San Fran and now he gets a meh Bengals team at home? Give me Pittsburgh

Points: Steelers
Victory: Steelers







Friday, September 20, 2019

2019 NFL Picks Week #3

So through the first two weeks of the season (and one game) I am:

14-16 against the spread

21-12 in the Win/Loss Column.

Not too great but let's see what we can do.

Broncos @ Packers (-7.5): Not going to go too crazy with this one. Broncos got robbed by the refs last week. Packers proved their defense was legit. Gimme GB

Points: Packers
Victory: Packers

Lions @ Eagles (-6): I can't figure the Lions out. Tie the Cardinals then beat the Chargers. But both games were close. My gut tells me this will be the same.

Points: Lions
Victory: Eagles

Ravens @ Chiefs (-5.5): Probably the best matchup of the week. Ravens will have to run the ball alot to keep Mahomes off the field and Vegas knows it. If the spread were a little higher I would take the Ravens but not here

Points: Chiefs
Victory: Chiefs

Bengals @ Bills (-6): After sweeping the Meadowlands, the Bills have a really good chance to go 3-0. Bengals have been Jekyll and Hyde the first two weeks. With some reluctance, I'm actually going to take the points because the Bills really haven't impressed on offense the first two weeks.

Points: Bengals
Victory: Bills

Falcons @ Colts (-1.5): PICK'EM! Both teams are 1-1. I will go with the team that has the better QB and right now that is Matt Ryan

Victory: Falcons

Raiders @ Vikings (-9.5): Vikings were massively disappointing  last week in GB. So I think they will win the game but I would be cautious with that big a spread.

Points: Raiders
Victory: Vikings

Jets @ Patriots (-21.5) This line has gone down a little bit as the week has gone on, especially with the news that the Pats ended the AB experiment. It's almost right at the point that I would have to take the Patriots I think.

Points: Pats
Victory: Pats

Dolphins @ Cowboys (-23): Dallas will run up the score, I bet. It's Jerry's way.

Points: Cowboys
Victory: Cowboys

Giants @ Bucs (-6): This is a tough one. The Buccaneers are not elite by any stretch but that Giants D is so bad and Daniel Jones will make some rookie mistakes. I think the Bucs pull away late.

Points: Bucs
Victory: Bucs

Panthers @ Cardinals (-2): PICK'EM #2. The Cardinals are game folks. And the Panthers led by Cam Newton have not been impressive. Go with the birds

Points: Cardinals
Victory: Cardinals

Saints @ Seahawks (-4): I know Sean Payton has a week to gameplan this offense in Seattle, but I just don't think Teddy is up to it.

Points: Seahawks
Victory: Seahawks

Texans @ Chargers (-3): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!
Chargers won in OT at home against a luckless Colts team then lost an unforgivable game against the Lions. Texans will look to bounce back and they were impressive against New Orleans in the dome
Gimme Houston

Points: Texans
Victory: Texans

Steelers @ Niners (-6.5): If the Steelers were at home for this game, I might have gone upset pick for them, but Rudolph in a tough environment might be trouble for the Steelers. But to be cautions, I will take the points

Points: Steelers
Victory: Niners

Rams (-3) @ Browns: This pick is almost too easy to me. Cleveland was not impressive on Monday Night beating up an undermanned Jets team. Now they face the defending NFC champs. Give me the Rams easy

Points: Rams
Victory: Rams

Bears (-4) @ Redskins: Chicago is a horrible roughing the passer penalty short of being 0-2. They are the Browns of the NFC. And the spread shows as much, Nevertheless, I think they take care of business against Washington.

Points: Bears
Victory: Bears

Friday, September 13, 2019

NFL Picks Week 2 2019

Last week I went:

Points: 7-8
Victory: 12-4

I already am 0-1 in both columns because I thought the Panthers would play well and beat Tampa. I was wrong. So here we go:

Colts @ Titans (-3): Is a letdown in order? I'm not sure. The Colts did hang in against the Chargers, but on the road again against a good defense? Nevertheless, I will be wary

Points: Colts
Victory: Titans

Chargers (-2.5) @ Lions: I was right about the Lions for my upset pick, and I think the Chargers will prevail here. After getting lit up by Kyler Murray in the second half, they get Phillip Rivers. Good luck

Points: Chargers
Victory: Chargers

Bills (-1.5) @ Giants: PICK'EM! The Giants defense is certainly not as good as the Jets defense the Bills faced the previous week. I think the Bills will sweep the Meadowlands

Victory: Bills

Cardinals @ Ravens (-13): This might be a case of the oddsmakers not seeing how bad Miami actually is. Cardinals rallied to tie the Lions and are probably feeling good. I know about the WC team on the EC, but that spread is too much

Points: Cardinals
Victory: Ravens

Patriots (-18.5) @ Dolphins: Speaking of big spreads, holy crap. I am really tempted to take the Patriots with the points here but the Patriots historically have problems in Miami. If this was at home I would give the points gladly. In Miami? No

Points: Dolphins
Victory: Patriots

Cowboys (-5.5) @ Redskins: This is more of a spread representing the NFC East. Redskins put up a nice fight against Philly but the Cowboys are a different kettle of fish. Cowboys will wear down the pass rush with Zeke

Points: Cowboys
Victory: Cowboys

Jaguars @ Texans (-8.5): When having to face a neophyte QB to start, teams will game plan for you better. I expect the Man with the Stache to struggle against Houston.

Points: Texans
Victory: Texans

Seahawks @ Steelers (-3.5): Steelers got their ass kicked and will want to stick it to Seattle. This spread is just the right amount to take Pittsburgh

Points: Steelers
Victory: Steelers

Niners @ Bengals (-2): This is a very tough game to call. Both teams showed well in their opening salvos. Which team is for real?  I'll just go with the Bengals because they are at home

Points: Bengals
Victory: Bengals

Vikings @ Packers (-2.5): This game to me comes down to whether we believe that the Packers defense is for real. I'm suspicious of this line, to be honest. I'm going with the Packers because I think Vegas may know something, but not fully

Points: Vikings
Victory: Packers

Chiefs (-7) @ Raiders: I think the Chiefs will roll over Oakland. That's it.

Points: Chiefs
Victory: Chiefs

Saints @ Rams (-2): Both of these teams let their opponents hang around a little bit the previous week because I think secretly they were waiting for this. Rams will play control offense to keep Brees off the field and I think they will win.

Points: Rams
Victory: Rams

Bears (-2.5) @ Broncos: UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKK!
Vic Fangio is the ex defensive coordinator of the Bears and knows that roster and team inside and out. But beyond that, the fact that it is in Denver proves to be a problem for a Bears offense that is predicated on running the football and I think Trubisky and Cohen will have problems in that light air. Give me the Broncos to bounce back at home

Points: Broncos
Victory: Broncos

Eagles (-2) @ Falcons: The Eagles defense did not show up that much against Washington, but I thought that would be happen being a divisional game. I think the Eagles will bounce back defensively and hold down the birds

Points: Eagles
Victory: Eagles

Browns (-6) @ Jets: This spread is interesting because with Darnold out the Jets are going to try and play keepaway using Bell and short passes. The problem is that the Jets secondary is so thin and weak that it might not matter how many possessions the Browns have. They should be focused after last week.

Points: Browns
Victory: Browns




Thursday, September 5, 2019

2019 NFL Picks: Week 1

It's that time again. Time to play the odds. For those who weren't here last year, I pick the point spread and who I think will win the game. The odds I use are those on this day specifically. For point spreads lower than 2 points, I call a pick'em. So with that out of the way; Let's play.

Packers @ Bears (-3): The 100th anniversary matchup provides a Packer team that will look very different vs a Bears team that will look to continue momentum from last year. The Bears being only 3 point favorites at home intrigues me. Give me the Packers on a whim. A mini upset pick IMO

Points: Packers
Victory: Packers

Falcons @ Vikings (-4): Vikings really need to come out strong after collapsing last year. But the Falcons are no spring chickens. This game I think will be closer than the experts think, but Minny will prevail

Points: Falcons
Victory: Vikings

Redskins @ Eagles (-10): LOL. What a spread. I know the Skins are very bad, but a divisional game to open up that large is a bit much. As much as I want to, I can't give those points.

Points: Redskins
Victory: Eagles

Bills @ Jets (-3): The Jets secondary is a major concern for them, but I don't believe Josh Allen is the right QB to exploit it to perfection. The Bills defense is tough, but I think Darnold grinds it out.

Points: Jets
Victory: Jets

Ravens (-6.5)@ Dolphins: This is the opposite to me of the Eagles spread.. The Dolphins are basically jumping into the tank feet first. And the Ravens will take them to the cleaners

Points: Ravens
Victory: Ravens

Chiefs (-3.5) @ Jaguars: Interesting matchup. The "It" team of the AFC vs the previous "It" team of the AFC. Jags will try and run the ball to keep Mahomes off the field so it will be close but Mahomes is too good. Chiefs cover but not by much

Points: Chiefs
Victory: Chiefs

Titans @ Browns (-5.5): The Browns are looking to live up to the hype of being the sexy pick. The Titans are anything but sexy. And yet, I have a feeling the Browns will get a scare put into them...

Points: Titans
Victory: Browns

Rams (-2)@Panthers: Another interesting spread. Rams coming off a run to the Super Bowl visiting Carolina, where Cam Newton needs to prove he's healthy. Panthers will fight hard, but succumb to talent.

Points: Rams
Victory: Rams

Bengals @ Seahawks (-9.5): The Bengals are not as bad as Miami. but they are close and AJ Green being out will hurt them. And in that noise box....Good luck.

Points: Seahawks
Victory: Seahawks

Colts @ Chargers (-6.5): Speaking of "luck", boy this matchup has certainly been turned on its ear hasn't it? The Colts have to go into an opposing stadium without their leader and with Brissett trying to establish he is one. This spread is close. I think Chargers cover it, but barely. No Gordon will hurt them.

Points: Chargers
Victory: Chargers

Niners @ Buccaneers (-1): PICK'EM!!!!!!!! This is a tough one. This might be Winston's last chance to catch on with Tampa, while San Fran has to figure out what Jimmy G is. I'm going to go with Tampa on the Bruce Arians factor.

Points: Bucs
Victory: Bucs

Lions (-2.5) @ Cardinals: UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKKKKK!!!!!!!!
I remember last year when the Lions opened up at home against a rookie QB and a team that was thought to be bad (and were eventually). They got taken to the woodshed by the Jets. The Cardinals are at home, they are going to have some new tricks up their sleeve. This might be one of a few wins for them, but I do think they win.

Points: Cardinals
Victory: Cardinals

Giants @ Cowboys (-7): This is a little better spread for a divisional game. With Zeke in tow Cowboys will win, I believe. But the Giants will keep it close enough

Points: Giants
Victory: Cowboys

Steelers @ Patriots (-5.5): Pats ownage of the Steelers vs. early season Pats troubles. Give me a combo.

Points: Steelers
Victory: Patriots

Texans @ Saints (-7): This matchup is sexy. Two good QBs with two good teams. But in the Superdome, the young Saints defense will rise to the occasion I think, and keep the Texans at bay. No Lamar Miller for the Texans will hurt too.

Points: Saints
Victory: Saints

Broncos (-2) @ Raiders: Ah the Raiders, the drama queens of the NFL. Their infighting with AB is going to cost Derek Carr a nice weapon and one less worry for a Broncos defense that is ready to hit Carr. Give me the Broncos easy.

Points: Broncos
Victory: Broncos