Greg's 2022 NFL Picks: Week #4

 I really bounced back against the spread last week (and Thursday night). I am now up to 15-18 against the spread (going 7-3 in the last 10), and 27-22 in the victory column. Also, it is very hard for me to write blurbs for every game, so I will write blurbs for games that I have strong opinions on and my upset(s????)

So here we go:

Vikings (-3) @ Saints: It looks like Andy Dalton will be starting for the Saints, which might be a good thing, but they are also banged up at skill positions, which is not good. Give me the Vikings over in London.

Points: Vikings    Victory: Vikings

Jaguars @ Eagles (-6.5): Doug Pederson revenge game? Eagles are playing too well and I have the hook.

Points: Eagles   Victory: Eagles

Bills (-3) @ Ravens: Rain all weekend? Go with the better defense and that's Buffalo.

Points: Bills    Victory: Bils

Commanders @ Cowboys (-3): Cooper Rush is doing solid and will continue.

Points: Cowboys   Victory: Cowboys

Jets @ Steelers (-3.5): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!!!!!!!!!!

With no TJ Watt, I don't believe the Steelers have the pass rush to take advantage of the Jets left side. And the Jets have actually done okay against the run so Mitch Trubisky will have to win this. If the Jets get blown out, I think their DC is done. I think just like the Cleveland game, this is put up time for Saleh and his staff and I think they get it done. They better.

Points: Jets    Victory: Jets

Chargers (-5.5) @ Texans: Don't really care. Go with the Chargers

Points: Chargers   Victory: Chargers

Browns (-1) @ Falcons: PICK'EM! Again, don't really care. Go with Browns

Victory: Browns

Seahawks @ Lions (-3.5): If the Lions have grown up, they should win this game. And I think they will.

Points: Lions    Victory: Lions

Bears @ Giants (-3): I was very close to making this the upset pick of the week, because the Giants are just banged up in the skill positions. But then, there is that coaching that I love. I'm going to pick the Giants to win. but I will be cautions here.

Points: Bears   Victory: Giants

Titans @ Colts (-3.5): Big game for the Colts to see if they can build on their big upset against KC. I'm kind of eh on this game because I want the Colts to show me more; and the Titans will be desperate. I will play cautiously here again.

Points: Titans    Victory: Colts

Cardinals (-1) @ Panthers: PICK'EM #2! Yawn, I'll take the Cardinals barely.

Victory: Cardinals

Patriots @ Packers (-9): I think Belichick will keep this game closer than that, but I think the Packers will win by 7, so I will take the points

Points: Pats    Victory: Packers

Broncos @ Raiders (-2.5): PICK'EM #3! Battle of 2 horrible coaches. The Raiders are going to win one eventually; they're too talented. Give me the Raiders

Victory: Raiders

Chiefs @ Buccaneers (-1): PICK'EM #4!  Will be a weird atmosphere after the hurricane. This is close. I will go with KC because of the loss last week to Indy. They will be focused.

Victory: Chiefs

Rams @ Niners (-2): PICK'EM #5! Suspicious line because I think the Rams are better and they got the Niners monkey off their back last year. I will go with the Rams

Victory: Rams

Greg's Thursday NFL Picks: Week #3

 I will get into the results from last week tomorrow. But for now, the Thursday Night pick:

Dolphins @ Bengals (-3.5): When you're on a short week, injuries and health become even more critical. This is why I favor the Bengals in this game. Dolphins have a myriad of injuries, none the least the back injury to Tua. Now he came back and played, but on a short week on the road? Ehhhhhh. The hook scares me a bit, but I will go with the Bengals

Points: Bengals   Victory: Bengals

Greg's 2022 NFL Picks Week #3

 So, through 2 weeks, I have dug myself a hole. Even though I got Thursday Night Football correct (I picked the Browns) I am still 8-15 against the spread, while being 19-14 in the victory column. Hopefully, we can start to turn this a bit this week. Let's take a look at it.

Chiefs (-5.5) @ Colts: I can't trust the Colts anymore. They are in serious trouble. Could they put up some points? Maybe, but I like the hook in this case. Give me KC.

Points: Chiefs   Victory: Chiefs

Bills (-5) @ Dolphins: Probably the game of the weekend here. Are Tua and the Dolphins ready for this moment? I think they are. And the Bills are going to have a letdown at some point. I'm not picking the upset, but I think I will give the points away. I think this will be close.

Points: Dolphins   Victory: Bills

Eagles (-6.5) @ Commanders: I think the Eagles deserve more respect from me. Jalen Hurts is rounding into form. And despite Wentz wanting revenge, I think Hurts wants some revenge/respect as well. The hook helps me here. Give me the Eagles

Points: Eagles    Victory: Eagles

Bengals (-6) @ Jets: Tempting because the Bengals OL is a great matchup for the Jets DL, but I can't believe that Cincy will start 0-3, and neither do bettors; as this line has gone up during the week. I think Jets play hard but Bengals pull away late.

Points: Bengals    Victory: Bengals

Lions @ Vikings (-6): Another tempting game given the Lions powerful offense the first two games and the Vikings topsy turvy play. I think the Vikings pull it out, but I think it will be close, so I will take the points.

Points: Lions   Victory: Vikings

Ravens (-3) @ Patriots:  I think the Pats are getting the Ravens at the wrong time. They just blew a big game against Miami, in which Lamar played pretty well, and they will be angry. I also don't think the Pats have the weapons like Miami did to take advantage of the Ravens defense, so I will go with the Ravens

Points: Ravens   Victory: Ravens

Raiders (-2) @ Titans: PICK'EM!  Ugly game here. Two teams with talent but with head coaches who are questionable at best. I will go with the Raiders because the Titans will be without some key plyers including their LT and two edge rushers. 

Victory: Raiders

Saints (-2.5) @ Panthers: PICK'EM #2! Comes down to coaching. Give me Dennis Allen over Matt Rhule easily. I think the Saints will win, not handily, but well.

Victory: Saints

Texans @ Bears (-3): I think the Bears are kind of in a nowhere place. I think they are okay in some places, but Fields and crew are meh. If the Texans had shown me more against Denver, maybe I would have gone with them, but I think the Bears win by at least a FG, so I will take the Bears.

Points: Bears    Victory: Bears

Jaguars @ Chargers (-3): VERY SUSPICIOUS LINE. The Chargers are only a 3-point favorite at home against the Jaguars? I know Herbert's ribs are hurt, but all signs point to him giving it a go on Sunday at least right now. But even if he doesn't, what does that say about the rest of the team? The Jags need to show me more to fully trust them. I will go with the Chargers, somewhat reluctantly

Points: Chargers    Victory: Chargers

Rams (-3.5) @ Cardinals: UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!!!!!

This is not only about the Cardinals getting a big win last week against the Raiders; this is also about the Rams being unable to really slam the door on the Falcons. The Rams scare me. They might be going through a bit of a SB hangover. And I think the Cardinals at home, after that win, will prove up to the task.

Points: Cardinals   Victory: Cardinals

Packers @ Buccaneers (-1): PICK'EM #3! I'm going with the Bucs based on their defense, which has only given up 1 TD all season. Rodgers and the rookie receivers will be tested, and I think they will lose.

Victory: Bucs

Falcons @ Seahawks (-1): PICK'EM #4!  I wonder how much good that near comeback against the Rams did. Seattle disappointed me greatly. I think I will go against the grain here and pick Atlanta. Have a feeling.

Victory: Falcons

49ers (-1.5) @ Broncos: PICK'EM #5!  While the QB matchup favors Denver, the coaching matchup favors San Francisco by a lot. That's why I'm going with them.

Victory: Niners

Cowboys @ Giants (-1): PICK'EM #6! This is going to be a low scoring game. Both offenses will be under siege. But I will go with my heart and pick the Giants, although it could really go either way.

Victory: Giants

Greg's 2022 NFL Picks Week #2

 So I got hit with the late backdoor cover last night as my season against the spread barely takes off with a 4-8 record. I am 9-8 though in the victory column. But I will not give up easily. So let's get on to Week #2

Jets @ Browns (-6.5): I'm going out on a little bit of a limb here. This is the most important game Robert Saleh has coached. After what he said this week, the Jets need to at least show up and compete. And I think they might. Brisset is no Lamar Jackson and the Jets defense held up okay. I think the Browns will win but I will take the Jets with the points because if they don't compete, hoo boy..

Points: Jets   Victory: Browns

Dolphins @ Ravens (-3.5) UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!!!!!!!!!!

This line feels low for a reason. The Ravens did not really impress against the Jets and the Dolphins put on a clinic against New England. Remember last year, the Dolphins DOMINATED the Ravens in a Thursday Night game. I think the oddsmakers sense it being close thus the spread and I will stick my neck out and the Fins go to 2-0

Points: Dolphins   Victory: Dolphins

Panthers @ Giants (-1.5): PICK'EM!  Good test for Brian Daboll here. Let's see how he and the Giants handle success. I believe they will handle it well. The big key is can the Giants stop McCaffrey from getting passes out of the backfield. If they can, I think they will be in good shape, along with a rejuvenated Saquon. I love the Giants coaching staff so much, so I will give them the benefit here.

Victory: Giants

Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Saints: PICK'EM #2! Remember last year the Saints really gave the Buccaneers fits. And they are at home. But there is doubt whether Alvin Kamara will play. A lot of "Questionables" in this game. But Kamara may be the biggest and for that reason, I will go with Tampa.

Victory: Bucs

Colts (-3) @ Jaguars: Like Robert Saleh, Frank Reich has to be feeling the heat. And he makes the return to the scene of last year's epic choke job. And after ending up in a tie with Houston, they need to win this game and win it convincingly. And I think they will. They have too much talent to fall flat on their face again.

Points: Colts   Victory: Colts

Patriots @ Steelers (-2.5): PICK'EM #3! Usually, I would take pause at Belichick being an underdog on the road, but honestly, the Patriots have been a mess most of the season. They have to show me they still have the moxie. I will take the Steelers looking to get some revenge for past defeats.

Victory: Steelers

Commanders @ Lions (-1.5): PICK'EM #4! Keep it short here. I will take Detroit, who nearly pulled off an epic comeback last week.

Victory: Lions

Falcons @ Rams (-10): The Rams have had over 2 weeks to stew on getting ass-blasted by Buffalo. The Falcons performed their trademarked "give up a huge lead late" routine against the Saints. This could get VERY ugly. I think the Rams come out with a vengeance and hand it to them

Points: Rams   Victory: Rams

Seahawks @ 49ers (-8.5): This line is not good at all. The Seahawks impressed at home against Denver while the Niners fell flat on their face against Chicago. I think the Niners will eventually wear out the Hawks, but not to that extent. I will take the Seahawks with the points.

Points: Seahawks   Victory: Niners

Bengals (-7) @ Cowboys:  Honestly if the Bengals can't dominate this game, the question of a Super Bowl hangover will rise more and more. Cowboys without Dak, Bengals coming off a heartbreaking loss. Give me the Bengals to at least win by a TD.

Points: Bengals    Victory: Bengals

Texans @ Broncos (-10): I don't really have a feel on this game. I don't know if I can give the Broncos the benefit of the doubt. On the other hand, the spread is really big. I'll go with Denver, hesitatingly.

Points: Broncos   Victory: Broncos

Cardinals @ Raiders (-5): Same thing here. I don't have a feel. I think I'll go with Vegas because the Cardinals defense was absolutely embarrassed by the Chiefs and I don't really trust them. And I'm only giving 5 points? I'll give those points.

Points: Raiders    Victory: Raiders

Bears @ Packers (-10): This line is exactly right. Bears might be due for a letdown and after getting smashed by the Vikings, Aaron Rodgers will need to get some ego boost against the team he owns. Packers should win by a lot. 

Points: Packers   Victory: Packers

Titans @ Bills (-10): Don't get me wrong, I think the Bills win this game, but Tennessee has the exact formula to keep Josh Allen off the field. The question is whether Mike Vrabel will use it effectively. He has had some questionable coaching decisions. Let's hope he sees the strategy. I will take the Titans with the points.

Points: Titans   Victory: Bills

Vikings @ Eagles (-2.5): PICK'EM #5! Two teams that can have let downs at any moment. In this case I'm going out on a limb and will take Kirk Cousins (despite his bad primetime record) against Jalen Hurts. The Eagles defense did not provide confidence last week. Gimme the Vikings.

Victory: Vikings

Greg's NFL Thursday Night Pick Week #2

 eeeek

I had about as bad a week as I have had since beginning this venture 2 years ago. I went a despicable 4-7 against the spread and 8-8 in the victory column. 

Yeah...

Let's just hope it gets better from here.

Chargers @ Chiefs (-4): Right now, the Chargers are coming in banged up. Keenan Allen will not play, and JC Jackson (their free agent CB) is questionable. The Chiefs, outside of kicker Harrison Butker, are virtually healthy, so I will take them at home and the healthier team.

Points: Chiefs   Victory: Chiefs

Greg's 2022 NFL Picks: Week 1

 So I am off to a rollicking start, as are the Buffalo Bills who destroyed the LA Rams in the second half last night. As such, I am up 1-0 in the victory column. But now the real fun begins as the NFL begins in earnest on Sunday. So with the help of the Draftkings Sportsbook, here we go.

Ravens (-6.5) @ Jets: The line just shifted down which is a bailout for me. I like the Ravens in this game, but the line at 7 scared me because the Ravens have been mercurial. Both teams are banged up, but I think the Ravens will win by at least 7 so give me Baltimore.

Points: Ravens    Victory: Ravens

Eagles (-4.5) @ Lions: UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKK!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is a big game for the Lions. If they want to show that they have moved ahead in the world this is a game to win. You're at home, you're against an Eagles team that's good but not great. Dan Campbell is looking to turn the culture, and here it is. Give me Detroit.

Points: Lions   Victory: Lions

Colts (-7) @ Texans: Give me the Colts. Not much else to say. Texans probably have the worst roster in the AFC. Simple

Points: Colts    Victory: Colts

49ers (-7) @ Bears: The Niners are a better team, that I'm sure of. But it appears George Kittle will not play and Trey Lance on the road in a rough Chicago environment is a bit iffy, especially with Jimmy G looking behind his back. Niners win, but I think the spread is too much. I'll take the points

Points: Bears   Victory: Niners

Steelers @ Bengals (-6.5): Once again, the hook probably saves me. I'm given a 7-point victory over Pittsburgh at home. With Mitch Trubisky starting for the Steelers? Give me the Bengals

Points: Bengals   Victory: Bengals

Saints (-5.5) @ Falcons: In a wide-open NFC, the Saints could be in play. To do that, they have to start by winning this game against the rebuilding Falcons. I think they will.

Points: Saints   Victory: Saints

Patriots @ Dolphins (-3.5): This to me could go either way. I know the Patriots offense has looked like dogshit in the early part of the season, but do I trust Tua yet? I don't know. If Miami wants to show that they are clearly the second best team in the AFC East, they should beat up New England. I think the Dolphins win but I don't like it. Begrudgingly I will give the points away

Points: Dolphins    Victory: Dolphins

Browns @ Panthers: PICK'EM! This is literally a pick'em game in the books so I will do just that and go with my heart. I hope the Panthers and Baker kick the crap out of Cleveland. Please do.

Victory: Panthers

Jaguars @ Commanders (-2.5): PICK'EM #2! Jaguars need to show me something before I pick them. Give me Washington

Victory: Commies

Giants @ Titans (-5.5): If the Giants were fully healthy, I may have given them a chance, but with Thibodeaux and Ojulari doubtful, I don't think they will be able to rattle Tannehill which helps out King Henry as well. Give me the Titans.

Points: Titans   Victory: Titans

Chiefs (-6) @ Cardinals: We're going to find out how big of a loss Tyreek Hill will be for the Chiefs. I think the Chiefs will eventually win this game, but the Cardinals should be able to keep up enough in order to keep it close. Give me the Cardinals with the points

Points: Cardinals   Victory: Chiefs

Packers (-1) @ Vikings: PICK'EM #3! Packers will be without Allen Lazard, but this is a prove it game for the Vikings. They choked away last year and they need to win this game to start off right. Unlike Browns/Panthers, I don't really have a dog in the fight. I'll go with Minny because they are at home but I don't know. 

Victory: Vikings

Raiders @ Chargers (-3.5): Sigh...

I'm going to pick the Chargers, but I can't trust them. I can NEVER trust them. So I am going to hedge my bets. Besides the homefield advantage for the Chargers is not that much of one. 

Points: Raiders    Victory: Chargers

Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Cowboys: PICK'EM #4! Both teams are hurting at OL so I think the running game and mobility at QB will be key. That's why I think Dallas is going to win. The Buccaneers also usually start out slow anyway. The low spread has this not being an upset but for a lot of people it may be

Victory: Cowboys

Broncos (-6.5) @ Seahawks: You think Russell Wilson is going to lose this game? Heck no. He's got a much better supporting cast than he had and he is looking to stick it to Pete Carroll. And he won't be phased by the Seattle crowd either.  Give me the Broncos in a blowout.

Points: Broncos   Victory: Broncos

Greg's Thursday Night NFL Pick: Week #1

 Hello everybody.

It's NFL time again, and this year I think I have finally figured out the best option to deal with this Thursday Night Football conundrum. I am going to pick the Thursday Night Game alone on Thursday and then the rest of the games on Friday. With injury information coming out every day, it will give me a better chance to evaluate the game.

For those new to this, I pick the spread and the victor. An under 3-point spread is a pick'em game, and a push equals a victory for me. I use the DraftKings Sportsbook to obtain my odds on that particular day.

So with that out of the way, here comes the first pick:

Bills (-2.5) @ Rams: PICK'EM! A pick'em right off the bat and I think with good reason. I know the Rams are at home, but honestly Los Angeles has not really gotten a home feel for them yet. The Rams are also without Van Jefferson, their young receiver. For the Bills, this kind of has to be their year to go and win the Super Bowl. Otherwise the cap hits will begin to come. And I think they get off on the right foot. I'm going Buffalo.

Victory: Bills

See you tomorrow for the rest of the games!