The Chiefs lost Pat Mahomes to injury but still kicked the crap out of Denver to give me the Thursday night win, so after 6 weeks and 1 game:
Spread: 44-39
W/L: 56-35
Approaching the halfway mark of the season; here we go.
Cardinals @ Giants (-3): The Cardinals have been feisty this year, thus my success with them in the Upset Picks, However, this may be the classic "WC team on early EC" game. Bit of a gut pick but I like the Giants, who played OK against NE.
Points: Giants
Victory: Giants
Texans @ Colts (-1): PICK'EM! Texans coming off a massive win against Kansas City, going to Indy in a crucial division game. It will be close, but Deshaun Watson over Brissett will edge the day IMO.
Victory: Texans
Dolphins @ Bills (-17): To get to this spread, the Bills are going to have to score on defense because their offense is okay; it's not great. I wouldn't be surprised if they do it, but it's still too big to me.
Points: Dolphins
Victory: Bills
Vikings (-2) @ Lions: Detroit got beaten by the white and black on Monday and now face the Vikings at home. This is a big test for Minny who have been mercurial. I think the Vikings get it done by more than 3, so give the points
Points: Vikings
Victory: Vikings
Raiders @ Packers (-5): Mahomes' injury opens up possibilities for Oakland, and this could be a trap game for the Packers, looking ahead to the Chiefs. For some reason, I want to proceed with caution on this one.
Points: Raiders
Victory: Packers
Jaguars (-4.5) @ Bengals: The Bengals are going for the tank. Give me the Jags.
Points: Jaguars
Victory: Jaguars
Rams (-3) @ Falcons: Rams got railroaded by the Niners and will be out for vengeance. The Falcons are at home, but their defense is a mess.
Points: Rams
Victory: Rams
Niners (-10) @ Redskins: Redskins lost the Tank Bowl against Miami and now will suffer the consequences.
Points: Niners
Victory: Niners
Chargers @ Titans (-2.5): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Titans are at a crossroads. They just benched Marcus Mariota for Ryan Tannehill. And they had little success of it in Denver. The Chargers are coming east, but they get a 4:00 slot, meaning the time differential means less. Give me the Chargers, who seem to have a better go of it on the road in terms of support
Points: Chargers
Victory: Chargers
Ravens @ Seahawks (-3): Seattle has been on a roll and they get the Ravens at home, who can give their OL some problems. However, I don't know if Lamar has played in an environment such as this. Give me the Seattle to edge them
Points: Seahawks
Victory: Seahawks
Saints @ Bears (-3.5): I usually shy away from picking the opposition on low spreads, but I have a feeling about this game. Two tough defenses, and two iffy QB situations, This one will be close.
Points: Saints
Victory: Bears
Eagles @ Cowboys (-2.5): The two NFC East leaders are struggling. The difference to me in this game will be the Eagles defense. They have not played well. And the Cowboys got going on offense in the second half at the Meadowlands. I will take the Cowboys but not confidently
Points: Cowboys
Victory: Cowboys
Patriots (-10) @ Jets: The fact that this line has not moved throughout the week is scary. The Patriots defense has been on point but their offense has not. This might be blind faith in me, but I will take the Jets to cover but not to win.
Points: Jets
Victory: Pats
Friday, October 18, 2019
Friday, October 11, 2019
2019 NFL Picks Week #6
Had a very good week last week and I finally won a Thursday night game! (Pats were easy)
Through 5 and 1 game
Spread: 38-34
Victory: 48-29
So onto Week 6:
Panthers (-2.5) @ Buccaneers: London games are always difficult to determine. In this case I am going to go with the better team and that would be Carolina
Points: Panthers
Victory: Panthers
Bengals @ Ravens (-11): I am suspicious about this line. The Ravens could have a letdown after a big OT win against the Steelers. The Bengals will probably play desperate. And its a divisional battle. Caution needed
Points: Bengals
Victory: Ravens
Seahawks (-1.5) @ Browns: PICK'EM! We have no idea what the heck Cleveland is. I do know this. Seattle has a very poor pass defense and if Baker is on, he can pick them apart. I'm going to go out on a limb and pick the Browns, although I don't feel good about it. Gut pick
Victory: Browns
Texans @ Chiefs (-4.5): Has a blueprint got out on how to stop the Chiefs offense? The Colts did a magnificent job of it and I feel the Texans have a tougher defense. If the spread were around 6 I would take the Texans points, but I still give the home edge to Kansas City
Points: Chiefs
Victory: Chiefs
Saints @ Jaguars (-1.5): PICK'EM #2! In this game, the Saints defense, which has been solid will be the difference. And the more Bridgewater plays in the offense, the better he should be. Gimme the road team
Victory: Saints
Eagles @ Vikings (-3): IMO a horrible matchup for Philly. Their secondary is banged up and they have two premier wide receivers to cover. If Cousins can't have a good day against this secondary, I don't know when he will have a good day again
Points: Vikings
Victory: Vikings
Redskins (-3.5) @ Dolphins: THE TANK BOWL!!!!!!!
I'll be honest, I was really considering taking Miami in my upset pick of the week. Washington just fired their coach; the Fins have at least shown some effort. Then I looked at their results. The Dolphins have scored 26 points in 4 games. I can't rely on that!
Points: Skins
Victory: Skins
Niners @ Rams (-3): HUGE game for the Rams who are on a losing skid.And the Niners to show that they are for real. Rams are at home. I think they stand up and get a big win.
Points: Rams
Victory: Rams
Falcons (-2.5) @ Cardinals: UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!!!!!!!!
The Falcons are a mess. Dan Quinn is probably going to be on the hot seat this offseason. And the young Cardinals scored a big road win against Cincy. I think the home crowd will help carry them to another victory.
Points: Cardinals
Victory: Cardinals
Cowboys (-7) @ Jets: A lot of people are surprised at this spread. I am not. I think this is a good tactical spread. This could have been/be a major trap for Dallas. Dallas will want to win, and should but the spread is not overblown. I will take Dallas.
Points: Cowboys
Victory: Cowboys
Titans @ Broncos (-2): PICK'EM #3! Titans are 0-2 at home and 2-1 on the road. That combined with their positive point differential tells me they should be dangerous against Denver and I think will win this game
Victory: Titans
Steelers @ Chargers (-6.5): This game scares me for the Chargers. The Steelers blew a game they should have won against Baltimore and will come in angry. I think the Chargers will win because of the veteran presence of Rivers, but I will be cautious.
Points: Steelers
Victory: Chargers
Lions @ Packers (-4): The Packers are legit and are coming off a big road win. The Lions are up in the air as usual. Gimme the Pack.
Points: Packers
Victory: Packers
Through 5 and 1 game
Spread: 38-34
Victory: 48-29
So onto Week 6:
Panthers (-2.5) @ Buccaneers: London games are always difficult to determine. In this case I am going to go with the better team and that would be Carolina
Points: Panthers
Victory: Panthers
Bengals @ Ravens (-11): I am suspicious about this line. The Ravens could have a letdown after a big OT win against the Steelers. The Bengals will probably play desperate. And its a divisional battle. Caution needed
Points: Bengals
Victory: Ravens
Seahawks (-1.5) @ Browns: PICK'EM! We have no idea what the heck Cleveland is. I do know this. Seattle has a very poor pass defense and if Baker is on, he can pick them apart. I'm going to go out on a limb and pick the Browns, although I don't feel good about it. Gut pick
Victory: Browns
Texans @ Chiefs (-4.5): Has a blueprint got out on how to stop the Chiefs offense? The Colts did a magnificent job of it and I feel the Texans have a tougher defense. If the spread were around 6 I would take the Texans points, but I still give the home edge to Kansas City
Points: Chiefs
Victory: Chiefs
Saints @ Jaguars (-1.5): PICK'EM #2! In this game, the Saints defense, which has been solid will be the difference. And the more Bridgewater plays in the offense, the better he should be. Gimme the road team
Victory: Saints
Eagles @ Vikings (-3): IMO a horrible matchup for Philly. Their secondary is banged up and they have two premier wide receivers to cover. If Cousins can't have a good day against this secondary, I don't know when he will have a good day again
Points: Vikings
Victory: Vikings
Redskins (-3.5) @ Dolphins: THE TANK BOWL!!!!!!!
I'll be honest, I was really considering taking Miami in my upset pick of the week. Washington just fired their coach; the Fins have at least shown some effort. Then I looked at their results. The Dolphins have scored 26 points in 4 games. I can't rely on that!
Points: Skins
Victory: Skins
Niners @ Rams (-3): HUGE game for the Rams who are on a losing skid.And the Niners to show that they are for real. Rams are at home. I think they stand up and get a big win.
Points: Rams
Victory: Rams
Falcons (-2.5) @ Cardinals: UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!!!!!!!!
The Falcons are a mess. Dan Quinn is probably going to be on the hot seat this offseason. And the young Cardinals scored a big road win against Cincy. I think the home crowd will help carry them to another victory.
Points: Cardinals
Victory: Cardinals
Cowboys (-7) @ Jets: A lot of people are surprised at this spread. I am not. I think this is a good tactical spread. This could have been/be a major trap for Dallas. Dallas will want to win, and should but the spread is not overblown. I will take Dallas.
Points: Cowboys
Victory: Cowboys
Titans @ Broncos (-2): PICK'EM #3! Titans are 0-2 at home and 2-1 on the road. That combined with their positive point differential tells me they should be dangerous against Denver and I think will win this game
Victory: Titans
Steelers @ Chargers (-6.5): This game scares me for the Chargers. The Steelers blew a game they should have won against Baltimore and will come in angry. I think the Chargers will win because of the veteran presence of Rivers, but I will be cautious.
Points: Steelers
Victory: Chargers
Lions @ Packers (-4): The Packers are legit and are coming off a big road win. The Lions are up in the air as usual. Gimme the Pack.
Points: Packers
Victory: Packers
Friday, October 4, 2019
2019 NFL Picks Week #5
So Thursday night was a pick'em. and once again I failed. I picked the Rams. Seattle won by a point.
So after 4 weeks and 1 game my record is:
Spread: 28-30
Victory: 39-24
Ravens (-3.5) @ Steelers: This is a tough one. Steelers blasted Cincy while the Ravens got knocked back by the Browns. Mason Rudolph has been solid but that rivalry is a different test. These games are usually very close. So I will proceed with caution.
Points: Steelers
Victory: Ravens
Bears (-5.5) @ Raiders: The Bears defense has continued to roll and it is the Khalil Mack revenge game. However, with uncertainty for the QB for Chicago, I'm going to play this cautiously too.
Points: Raiders
Victory: Bears
Cardinals @ Bengals (-3): This one could easily be an upset but I'm not going to go for it. Gimme the Bengals
Points: Bengals
Victory: Bengals
Jaguars @ Panthers (-3.5): Might be the most fascinating contest of the week. Two backup QBs who are making noise. However, I think Carolina will have more versatility because of their number of playmakers
Points: Panthers
Victory: Panthers
Vikings (-5) @ Giants: This is a must win game for the Minnesota Vikings. So I expect them to come out guns blazing. Giants will hang in there, but not enough IMO.
Points: Vikings
Victory: Vikings
Patriots (-15.5) @ Redskins: Nothing really needs to be said
Points: Pats
Victory: Pats
Jets @ Eagles (-13.5): Spread is the key with this one. I think Philly, after winning a big game against the Packers and looking forward to a big game at Minnesota, might overlook the Jets a little bit. Sam Darnold's health is also in question. That spread is a bit too big for me.
Points: Jets
Victory: Eagles
Buccaneers @ Saints (-3): The Bucs took advantage of a Rams trap last week. Not so lucky this week I think
Points: Saints
Victory: Saints
Falcons @ Texans (-4): This is a must win game for the Texans after getting upended by the Panthers. The Falcons pass rush scares me a bit so I'm going to play this one cautiously
Points: Falcons
Victory: Texans
Bills @ Titans (-3): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Two very similar teams with tough defenses and meh offenses. The key to me will be the choice at QB for Buffalo. They should play this very secretly in order to confuse the Titans. I just have a liking for this Bills squad and I think they get it done on the road
Points: Bills
Victory: Bills
Broncos @ Chargers (-6): This could be a trap game for the Chargers. Broncos are 0-4 and the Chargers are playing the Steelers next on Sunday night. For that reason, I am going to play this cautiously.
Points: Broncos
Victory: Chargers
Packers @ Cowboys (-3.5): The Eagles ran all over the Packers on Thursday Night and now they will have to contend with Zeke and Dak. This game will be tough but I will take Dallas
Points: Cowboys
Victory: Cowboys
Browns @ Niners (-4): Nick Chubb was the key to the Browns offense last week. but the Niners are among the lowers in terms of yardage per attempt allowed. I will take the Niners at home to win.
Points: Niners
Victory: Niners
So after 4 weeks and 1 game my record is:
Spread: 28-30
Victory: 39-24
Ravens (-3.5) @ Steelers: This is a tough one. Steelers blasted Cincy while the Ravens got knocked back by the Browns. Mason Rudolph has been solid but that rivalry is a different test. These games are usually very close. So I will proceed with caution.
Points: Steelers
Victory: Ravens
Bears (-5.5) @ Raiders: The Bears defense has continued to roll and it is the Khalil Mack revenge game. However, with uncertainty for the QB for Chicago, I'm going to play this cautiously too.
Points: Raiders
Victory: Bears
Cardinals @ Bengals (-3): This one could easily be an upset but I'm not going to go for it. Gimme the Bengals
Points: Bengals
Victory: Bengals
Jaguars @ Panthers (-3.5): Might be the most fascinating contest of the week. Two backup QBs who are making noise. However, I think Carolina will have more versatility because of their number of playmakers
Points: Panthers
Victory: Panthers
Vikings (-5) @ Giants: This is a must win game for the Minnesota Vikings. So I expect them to come out guns blazing. Giants will hang in there, but not enough IMO.
Points: Vikings
Victory: Vikings
Patriots (-15.5) @ Redskins: Nothing really needs to be said
Points: Pats
Victory: Pats
Jets @ Eagles (-13.5): Spread is the key with this one. I think Philly, after winning a big game against the Packers and looking forward to a big game at Minnesota, might overlook the Jets a little bit. Sam Darnold's health is also in question. That spread is a bit too big for me.
Points: Jets
Victory: Eagles
Buccaneers @ Saints (-3): The Bucs took advantage of a Rams trap last week. Not so lucky this week I think
Points: Saints
Victory: Saints
Falcons @ Texans (-4): This is a must win game for the Texans after getting upended by the Panthers. The Falcons pass rush scares me a bit so I'm going to play this one cautiously
Points: Falcons
Victory: Texans
Bills @ Titans (-3): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Two very similar teams with tough defenses and meh offenses. The key to me will be the choice at QB for Buffalo. They should play this very secretly in order to confuse the Titans. I just have a liking for this Bills squad and I think they get it done on the road
Points: Bills
Victory: Bills
Broncos @ Chargers (-6): This could be a trap game for the Chargers. Broncos are 0-4 and the Chargers are playing the Steelers next on Sunday night. For that reason, I am going to play this cautiously.
Points: Broncos
Victory: Chargers
Packers @ Cowboys (-3.5): The Eagles ran all over the Packers on Thursday Night and now they will have to contend with Zeke and Dak. This game will be tough but I will take Dallas
Points: Cowboys
Victory: Cowboys
Browns @ Niners (-4): Nick Chubb was the key to the Browns offense last week. but the Niners are among the lowers in terms of yardage per attempt allowed. I will take the Niners at home to win.
Points: Niners
Victory: Niners
Friday, September 27, 2019
2019 NFL Picks Week #4
Thursday Night Football has been unkind to me. I have gotten every one of them wrong except for Opening Night. As a consequence, my record stands at:
22-23 against the spread
31-18 in the W/L column
Week 4:
Panthers @ Texans (-3.5): I was and am very tempted to make this my upset pick of the week. The Panthers defense is more than capable of getting to Deshaun Watson and the Panthers offensively were good last week. But I don't trust Kyle Allen that much yet. I will play it cautiously
Points: Panthers
Victory: Texans
Browns @ Ravens (-6.5): This is desperation time for the Browns. They HAVE to put up a good performance otherwise all that hype will have been for nothing. That's why this spread is a bit too big for me.
Points: Browns
Victory: Ravens
Redskins @ Giants (-3): This is right on the edge for me. Washington has some players that can kill the Giants, but Danny Dimes is at home for the first time. I think that will carry the day slightly
Points: Giants
Victory: Giants
Chargers (-14.5) @ Dolphins: If they were at home, I would gladly take the Chargers points, but the WC team on the EC bothers me a bit. I think it's a bit closer that the spread
Points: Dolphins
Victory: Chargers
Raiders @ Colts (-6.5): Frank Reich has done a remarkable job with this Colts team and I have doubted them early. Therefore I am going to jump on board the Brissett express.
Points: Colts
Victory: Colts
Chiefs (-7) @ Lions: Suspicious line from Vegas, but I think Mahomes is good enough to beat any suspicion
Points: Chiefs
Victory: Chiefs
Pats (-7) @ Bills: Line here is very important. The push rule is also very important here. I think the Bills will keep it competitive but give me the Pats to beat them by a TD or more
Points: Pats
Victory: Pats
Titans @ Falcons (-3.5): The shine of that Cleveland game is losing its luster a little bit and the Falcons are at home in the dome. Gimme the birds
Points: Falcons
Victory: Falcons
Buccaneers @ Rams (-9.5): This line scares me a little bit because IDK if the Rams really have the put the pedal to the floor aspect to their team, but I will take these points cautiously.
Points: Rams
Victory: Rams
Seahawks (-5.5) @ Cardinals: Seattle should be playing pissed after getting beaten at home by the Saints. I think they blow out Arizona
Points: Seahawks
Victory: Seahawks
Vikings @ Bears (-2): PICK'EM!!!!!!!!!!! Bears impressed me a little bit last week and they had Minnesota's number last year. And they're at home. Give me the Bears
Victory: Bears
Jaguars @ Broncos (-3): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The mustached bandit Gardner Minshew is used to playing in the high altitudes of the Rockies coming from Washington State. And I don't believe the Broncos have the firepower to take advantage of Jalen Ramsey being out, if he is out. Jags get a big win on the road
Points: Jaguars
Victory: Jaguars
Cowboys (-2.5) @ Saints: I thought about taking the Saints in the dome, but Jerry World is kind of a dome so I don't see Dallas being intimidated. And the Saints may be due for a letdown
Points: Cowboys
Victory: Cowboys
Bengals @ Steelers (-3.5): Mason Rudolph impressed last week against San Fran and now he gets a meh Bengals team at home? Give me Pittsburgh
Points: Steelers
Victory: Steelers
22-23 against the spread
31-18 in the W/L column
Week 4:
Panthers @ Texans (-3.5): I was and am very tempted to make this my upset pick of the week. The Panthers defense is more than capable of getting to Deshaun Watson and the Panthers offensively were good last week. But I don't trust Kyle Allen that much yet. I will play it cautiously
Points: Panthers
Victory: Texans
Browns @ Ravens (-6.5): This is desperation time for the Browns. They HAVE to put up a good performance otherwise all that hype will have been for nothing. That's why this spread is a bit too big for me.
Points: Browns
Victory: Ravens
Redskins @ Giants (-3): This is right on the edge for me. Washington has some players that can kill the Giants, but Danny Dimes is at home for the first time. I think that will carry the day slightly
Points: Giants
Victory: Giants
Chargers (-14.5) @ Dolphins: If they were at home, I would gladly take the Chargers points, but the WC team on the EC bothers me a bit. I think it's a bit closer that the spread
Points: Dolphins
Victory: Chargers
Raiders @ Colts (-6.5): Frank Reich has done a remarkable job with this Colts team and I have doubted them early. Therefore I am going to jump on board the Brissett express.
Points: Colts
Victory: Colts
Chiefs (-7) @ Lions: Suspicious line from Vegas, but I think Mahomes is good enough to beat any suspicion
Points: Chiefs
Victory: Chiefs
Pats (-7) @ Bills: Line here is very important. The push rule is also very important here. I think the Bills will keep it competitive but give me the Pats to beat them by a TD or more
Points: Pats
Victory: Pats
Titans @ Falcons (-3.5): The shine of that Cleveland game is losing its luster a little bit and the Falcons are at home in the dome. Gimme the birds
Points: Falcons
Victory: Falcons
Buccaneers @ Rams (-9.5): This line scares me a little bit because IDK if the Rams really have the put the pedal to the floor aspect to their team, but I will take these points cautiously.
Points: Rams
Victory: Rams
Seahawks (-5.5) @ Cardinals: Seattle should be playing pissed after getting beaten at home by the Saints. I think they blow out Arizona
Points: Seahawks
Victory: Seahawks
Vikings @ Bears (-2): PICK'EM!!!!!!!!!!! Bears impressed me a little bit last week and they had Minnesota's number last year. And they're at home. Give me the Bears
Victory: Bears
Jaguars @ Broncos (-3): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The mustached bandit Gardner Minshew is used to playing in the high altitudes of the Rockies coming from Washington State. And I don't believe the Broncos have the firepower to take advantage of Jalen Ramsey being out, if he is out. Jags get a big win on the road
Points: Jaguars
Victory: Jaguars
Cowboys (-2.5) @ Saints: I thought about taking the Saints in the dome, but Jerry World is kind of a dome so I don't see Dallas being intimidated. And the Saints may be due for a letdown
Points: Cowboys
Victory: Cowboys
Bengals @ Steelers (-3.5): Mason Rudolph impressed last week against San Fran and now he gets a meh Bengals team at home? Give me Pittsburgh
Points: Steelers
Victory: Steelers
Friday, September 20, 2019
2019 NFL Picks Week #3
So through the first two weeks of the season (and one game) I am:
14-16 against the spread
21-12 in the Win/Loss Column.
Not too great but let's see what we can do.
Broncos @ Packers (-7.5): Not going to go too crazy with this one. Broncos got robbed by the refs last week. Packers proved their defense was legit. Gimme GB
Points: Packers
Victory: Packers
Lions @ Eagles (-6): I can't figure the Lions out. Tie the Cardinals then beat the Chargers. But both games were close. My gut tells me this will be the same.
Points: Lions
Victory: Eagles
Ravens @ Chiefs (-5.5): Probably the best matchup of the week. Ravens will have to run the ball alot to keep Mahomes off the field and Vegas knows it. If the spread were a little higher I would take the Ravens but not here
Points: Chiefs
Victory: Chiefs
Bengals @ Bills (-6): After sweeping the Meadowlands, the Bills have a really good chance to go 3-0. Bengals have been Jekyll and Hyde the first two weeks. With some reluctance, I'm actually going to take the points because the Bills really haven't impressed on offense the first two weeks.
Points: Bengals
Victory: Bills
Falcons @ Colts (-1.5): PICK'EM! Both teams are 1-1. I will go with the team that has the better QB and right now that is Matt Ryan
Victory: Falcons
Raiders @ Vikings (-9.5): Vikings were massively disappointing last week in GB. So I think they will win the game but I would be cautious with that big a spread.
Points: Raiders
Victory: Vikings
Jets @ Patriots (-21.5) This line has gone down a little bit as the week has gone on, especially with the news that the Pats ended the AB experiment. It's almost right at the point that I would have to take the Patriots I think.
Points: Pats
Victory: Pats
Dolphins @ Cowboys (-23): Dallas will run up the score, I bet. It's Jerry's way.
Points: Cowboys
Victory: Cowboys
Giants @ Bucs (-6): This is a tough one. The Buccaneers are not elite by any stretch but that Giants D is so bad and Daniel Jones will make some rookie mistakes. I think the Bucs pull away late.
Points: Bucs
Victory: Bucs
Panthers @ Cardinals (-2): PICK'EM #2. The Cardinals are game folks. And the Panthers led by Cam Newton have not been impressive. Go with the birds
Points: Cardinals
Victory: Cardinals
Saints @ Seahawks (-4): I know Sean Payton has a week to gameplan this offense in Seattle, but I just don't think Teddy is up to it.
Points: Seahawks
Victory: Seahawks
Texans @ Chargers (-3): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!
Chargers won in OT at home against a luckless Colts team then lost an unforgivable game against the Lions. Texans will look to bounce back and they were impressive against New Orleans in the dome
Gimme Houston
Points: Texans
Victory: Texans
Steelers @ Niners (-6.5): If the Steelers were at home for this game, I might have gone upset pick for them, but Rudolph in a tough environment might be trouble for the Steelers. But to be cautions, I will take the points
Points: Steelers
Victory: Niners
Rams (-3) @ Browns: This pick is almost too easy to me. Cleveland was not impressive on Monday Night beating up an undermanned Jets team. Now they face the defending NFC champs. Give me the Rams easy
Points: Rams
Victory: Rams
Bears (-4) @ Redskins: Chicago is a horrible roughing the passer penalty short of being 0-2. They are the Browns of the NFC. And the spread shows as much, Nevertheless, I think they take care of business against Washington.
Points: Bears
Victory: Bears
14-16 against the spread
21-12 in the Win/Loss Column.
Not too great but let's see what we can do.
Broncos @ Packers (-7.5): Not going to go too crazy with this one. Broncos got robbed by the refs last week. Packers proved their defense was legit. Gimme GB
Points: Packers
Victory: Packers
Lions @ Eagles (-6): I can't figure the Lions out. Tie the Cardinals then beat the Chargers. But both games were close. My gut tells me this will be the same.
Points: Lions
Victory: Eagles
Ravens @ Chiefs (-5.5): Probably the best matchup of the week. Ravens will have to run the ball alot to keep Mahomes off the field and Vegas knows it. If the spread were a little higher I would take the Ravens but not here
Points: Chiefs
Victory: Chiefs
Bengals @ Bills (-6): After sweeping the Meadowlands, the Bills have a really good chance to go 3-0. Bengals have been Jekyll and Hyde the first two weeks. With some reluctance, I'm actually going to take the points because the Bills really haven't impressed on offense the first two weeks.
Points: Bengals
Victory: Bills
Falcons @ Colts (-1.5): PICK'EM! Both teams are 1-1. I will go with the team that has the better QB and right now that is Matt Ryan
Victory: Falcons
Raiders @ Vikings (-9.5): Vikings were massively disappointing last week in GB. So I think they will win the game but I would be cautious with that big a spread.
Points: Raiders
Victory: Vikings
Jets @ Patriots (-21.5) This line has gone down a little bit as the week has gone on, especially with the news that the Pats ended the AB experiment. It's almost right at the point that I would have to take the Patriots I think.
Points: Pats
Victory: Pats
Dolphins @ Cowboys (-23): Dallas will run up the score, I bet. It's Jerry's way.
Points: Cowboys
Victory: Cowboys
Giants @ Bucs (-6): This is a tough one. The Buccaneers are not elite by any stretch but that Giants D is so bad and Daniel Jones will make some rookie mistakes. I think the Bucs pull away late.
Points: Bucs
Victory: Bucs
Panthers @ Cardinals (-2): PICK'EM #2. The Cardinals are game folks. And the Panthers led by Cam Newton have not been impressive. Go with the birds
Points: Cardinals
Victory: Cardinals
Saints @ Seahawks (-4): I know Sean Payton has a week to gameplan this offense in Seattle, but I just don't think Teddy is up to it.
Points: Seahawks
Victory: Seahawks
Texans @ Chargers (-3): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!
Chargers won in OT at home against a luckless Colts team then lost an unforgivable game against the Lions. Texans will look to bounce back and they were impressive against New Orleans in the dome
Gimme Houston
Points: Texans
Victory: Texans
Steelers @ Niners (-6.5): If the Steelers were at home for this game, I might have gone upset pick for them, but Rudolph in a tough environment might be trouble for the Steelers. But to be cautions, I will take the points
Points: Steelers
Victory: Niners
Rams (-3) @ Browns: This pick is almost too easy to me. Cleveland was not impressive on Monday Night beating up an undermanned Jets team. Now they face the defending NFC champs. Give me the Rams easy
Points: Rams
Victory: Rams
Bears (-4) @ Redskins: Chicago is a horrible roughing the passer penalty short of being 0-2. They are the Browns of the NFC. And the spread shows as much, Nevertheless, I think they take care of business against Washington.
Points: Bears
Victory: Bears
Friday, September 13, 2019
NFL Picks Week 2 2019
Last week I went:
Points: 7-8
Victory: 12-4
I already am 0-1 in both columns because I thought the Panthers would play well and beat Tampa. I was wrong. So here we go:
Colts @ Titans (-3): Is a letdown in order? I'm not sure. The Colts did hang in against the Chargers, but on the road again against a good defense? Nevertheless, I will be wary
Points: Colts
Victory: Titans
Chargers (-2.5) @ Lions: I was right about the Lions for my upset pick, and I think the Chargers will prevail here. After getting lit up by Kyler Murray in the second half, they get Phillip Rivers. Good luck
Points: Chargers
Victory: Chargers
Bills (-1.5) @ Giants: PICK'EM! The Giants defense is certainly not as good as the Jets defense the Bills faced the previous week. I think the Bills will sweep the Meadowlands
Victory: Bills
Cardinals @ Ravens (-13): This might be a case of the oddsmakers not seeing how bad Miami actually is. Cardinals rallied to tie the Lions and are probably feeling good. I know about the WC team on the EC, but that spread is too much
Points: Cardinals
Victory: Ravens
Patriots (-18.5) @ Dolphins: Speaking of big spreads, holy crap. I am really tempted to take the Patriots with the points here but the Patriots historically have problems in Miami. If this was at home I would give the points gladly. In Miami? No
Points: Dolphins
Victory: Patriots
Cowboys (-5.5) @ Redskins: This is more of a spread representing the NFC East. Redskins put up a nice fight against Philly but the Cowboys are a different kettle of fish. Cowboys will wear down the pass rush with Zeke
Points: Cowboys
Victory: Cowboys
Jaguars @ Texans (-8.5): When having to face a neophyte QB to start, teams will game plan for you better. I expect the Man with the Stache to struggle against Houston.
Points: Texans
Victory: Texans
Seahawks @ Steelers (-3.5): Steelers got their ass kicked and will want to stick it to Seattle. This spread is just the right amount to take Pittsburgh
Points: Steelers
Victory: Steelers
Niners @ Bengals (-2): This is a very tough game to call. Both teams showed well in their opening salvos. Which team is for real? I'll just go with the Bengals because they are at home
Points: Bengals
Victory: Bengals
Vikings @ Packers (-2.5): This game to me comes down to whether we believe that the Packers defense is for real. I'm suspicious of this line, to be honest. I'm going with the Packers because I think Vegas may know something, but not fully
Points: Vikings
Victory: Packers
Chiefs (-7) @ Raiders: I think the Chiefs will roll over Oakland. That's it.
Points: Chiefs
Victory: Chiefs
Saints @ Rams (-2): Both of these teams let their opponents hang around a little bit the previous week because I think secretly they were waiting for this. Rams will play control offense to keep Brees off the field and I think they will win.
Points: Rams
Victory: Rams
Bears (-2.5) @ Broncos: UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKK!
Vic Fangio is the ex defensive coordinator of the Bears and knows that roster and team inside and out. But beyond that, the fact that it is in Denver proves to be a problem for a Bears offense that is predicated on running the football and I think Trubisky and Cohen will have problems in that light air. Give me the Broncos to bounce back at home
Points: Broncos
Victory: Broncos
Eagles (-2) @ Falcons: The Eagles defense did not show up that much against Washington, but I thought that would be happen being a divisional game. I think the Eagles will bounce back defensively and hold down the birds
Points: Eagles
Victory: Eagles
Browns (-6) @ Jets: This spread is interesting because with Darnold out the Jets are going to try and play keepaway using Bell and short passes. The problem is that the Jets secondary is so thin and weak that it might not matter how many possessions the Browns have. They should be focused after last week.
Points: Browns
Victory: Browns
Points: 7-8
Victory: 12-4
I already am 0-1 in both columns because I thought the Panthers would play well and beat Tampa. I was wrong. So here we go:
Colts @ Titans (-3): Is a letdown in order? I'm not sure. The Colts did hang in against the Chargers, but on the road again against a good defense? Nevertheless, I will be wary
Points: Colts
Victory: Titans
Chargers (-2.5) @ Lions: I was right about the Lions for my upset pick, and I think the Chargers will prevail here. After getting lit up by Kyler Murray in the second half, they get Phillip Rivers. Good luck
Points: Chargers
Victory: Chargers
Bills (-1.5) @ Giants: PICK'EM! The Giants defense is certainly not as good as the Jets defense the Bills faced the previous week. I think the Bills will sweep the Meadowlands
Victory: Bills
Cardinals @ Ravens (-13): This might be a case of the oddsmakers not seeing how bad Miami actually is. Cardinals rallied to tie the Lions and are probably feeling good. I know about the WC team on the EC, but that spread is too much
Points: Cardinals
Victory: Ravens
Patriots (-18.5) @ Dolphins: Speaking of big spreads, holy crap. I am really tempted to take the Patriots with the points here but the Patriots historically have problems in Miami. If this was at home I would give the points gladly. In Miami? No
Points: Dolphins
Victory: Patriots
Cowboys (-5.5) @ Redskins: This is more of a spread representing the NFC East. Redskins put up a nice fight against Philly but the Cowboys are a different kettle of fish. Cowboys will wear down the pass rush with Zeke
Points: Cowboys
Victory: Cowboys
Jaguars @ Texans (-8.5): When having to face a neophyte QB to start, teams will game plan for you better. I expect the Man with the Stache to struggle against Houston.
Points: Texans
Victory: Texans
Seahawks @ Steelers (-3.5): Steelers got their ass kicked and will want to stick it to Seattle. This spread is just the right amount to take Pittsburgh
Points: Steelers
Victory: Steelers
Niners @ Bengals (-2): This is a very tough game to call. Both teams showed well in their opening salvos. Which team is for real? I'll just go with the Bengals because they are at home
Points: Bengals
Victory: Bengals
Vikings @ Packers (-2.5): This game to me comes down to whether we believe that the Packers defense is for real. I'm suspicious of this line, to be honest. I'm going with the Packers because I think Vegas may know something, but not fully
Points: Vikings
Victory: Packers
Chiefs (-7) @ Raiders: I think the Chiefs will roll over Oakland. That's it.
Points: Chiefs
Victory: Chiefs
Saints @ Rams (-2): Both of these teams let their opponents hang around a little bit the previous week because I think secretly they were waiting for this. Rams will play control offense to keep Brees off the field and I think they will win.
Points: Rams
Victory: Rams
Bears (-2.5) @ Broncos: UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKK!
Vic Fangio is the ex defensive coordinator of the Bears and knows that roster and team inside and out. But beyond that, the fact that it is in Denver proves to be a problem for a Bears offense that is predicated on running the football and I think Trubisky and Cohen will have problems in that light air. Give me the Broncos to bounce back at home
Points: Broncos
Victory: Broncos
Eagles (-2) @ Falcons: The Eagles defense did not show up that much against Washington, but I thought that would be happen being a divisional game. I think the Eagles will bounce back defensively and hold down the birds
Points: Eagles
Victory: Eagles
Browns (-6) @ Jets: This spread is interesting because with Darnold out the Jets are going to try and play keepaway using Bell and short passes. The problem is that the Jets secondary is so thin and weak that it might not matter how many possessions the Browns have. They should be focused after last week.
Points: Browns
Victory: Browns
Thursday, September 5, 2019
2019 NFL Picks: Week 1
It's that time again. Time to play the odds. For those who weren't here last year, I pick the point spread and who I think will win the game. The odds I use are those on this day specifically. For point spreads lower than 2 points, I call a pick'em. So with that out of the way; Let's play.
Packers @ Bears (-3): The 100th anniversary matchup provides a Packer team that will look very different vs a Bears team that will look to continue momentum from last year. The Bears being only 3 point favorites at home intrigues me. Give me the Packers on a whim. A mini upset pick IMO
Points: Packers
Victory: Packers
Falcons @ Vikings (-4): Vikings really need to come out strong after collapsing last year. But the Falcons are no spring chickens. This game I think will be closer than the experts think, but Minny will prevail
Points: Falcons
Victory: Vikings
Redskins @ Eagles (-10): LOL. What a spread. I know the Skins are very bad, but a divisional game to open up that large is a bit much. As much as I want to, I can't give those points.
Points: Redskins
Victory: Eagles
Bills @ Jets (-3): The Jets secondary is a major concern for them, but I don't believe Josh Allen is the right QB to exploit it to perfection. The Bills defense is tough, but I think Darnold grinds it out.
Points: Jets
Victory: Jets
Ravens (-6.5)@ Dolphins: This is the opposite to me of the Eagles spread.. The Dolphins are basically jumping into the tank feet first. And the Ravens will take them to the cleaners
Points: Ravens
Victory: Ravens
Chiefs (-3.5) @ Jaguars: Interesting matchup. The "It" team of the AFC vs the previous "It" team of the AFC. Jags will try and run the ball to keep Mahomes off the field so it will be close but Mahomes is too good. Chiefs cover but not by much
Points: Chiefs
Victory: Chiefs
Titans @ Browns (-5.5): The Browns are looking to live up to the hype of being the sexy pick. The Titans are anything but sexy. And yet, I have a feeling the Browns will get a scare put into them...
Points: Titans
Victory: Browns
Rams (-2)@Panthers: Another interesting spread. Rams coming off a run to the Super Bowl visiting Carolina, where Cam Newton needs to prove he's healthy. Panthers will fight hard, but succumb to talent.
Points: Rams
Victory: Rams
Bengals @ Seahawks (-9.5): The Bengals are not as bad as Miami. but they are close and AJ Green being out will hurt them. And in that noise box....Good luck.
Points: Seahawks
Victory: Seahawks
Colts @ Chargers (-6.5): Speaking of "luck", boy this matchup has certainly been turned on its ear hasn't it? The Colts have to go into an opposing stadium without their leader and with Brissett trying to establish he is one. This spread is close. I think Chargers cover it, but barely. No Gordon will hurt them.
Points: Chargers
Victory: Chargers
Niners @ Buccaneers (-1): PICK'EM!!!!!!!! This is a tough one. This might be Winston's last chance to catch on with Tampa, while San Fran has to figure out what Jimmy G is. I'm going to go with Tampa on the Bruce Arians factor.
Points: Bucs
Victory: Bucs
Lions (-2.5) @ Cardinals: UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKKKKK!!!!!!!!
I remember last year when the Lions opened up at home against a rookie QB and a team that was thought to be bad (and were eventually). They got taken to the woodshed by the Jets. The Cardinals are at home, they are going to have some new tricks up their sleeve. This might be one of a few wins for them, but I do think they win.
Points: Cardinals
Victory: Cardinals
Giants @ Cowboys (-7): This is a little better spread for a divisional game. With Zeke in tow Cowboys will win, I believe. But the Giants will keep it close enough
Points: Giants
Victory: Cowboys
Steelers @ Patriots (-5.5): Pats ownage of the Steelers vs. early season Pats troubles. Give me a combo.
Points: Steelers
Victory: Patriots
Texans @ Saints (-7): This matchup is sexy. Two good QBs with two good teams. But in the Superdome, the young Saints defense will rise to the occasion I think, and keep the Texans at bay. No Lamar Miller for the Texans will hurt too.
Points: Saints
Victory: Saints
Broncos (-2) @ Raiders: Ah the Raiders, the drama queens of the NFL. Their infighting with AB is going to cost Derek Carr a nice weapon and one less worry for a Broncos defense that is ready to hit Carr. Give me the Broncos easy.
Points: Broncos
Victory: Broncos
Packers @ Bears (-3): The 100th anniversary matchup provides a Packer team that will look very different vs a Bears team that will look to continue momentum from last year. The Bears being only 3 point favorites at home intrigues me. Give me the Packers on a whim. A mini upset pick IMO
Points: Packers
Victory: Packers
Falcons @ Vikings (-4): Vikings really need to come out strong after collapsing last year. But the Falcons are no spring chickens. This game I think will be closer than the experts think, but Minny will prevail
Points: Falcons
Victory: Vikings
Redskins @ Eagles (-10): LOL. What a spread. I know the Skins are very bad, but a divisional game to open up that large is a bit much. As much as I want to, I can't give those points.
Points: Redskins
Victory: Eagles
Bills @ Jets (-3): The Jets secondary is a major concern for them, but I don't believe Josh Allen is the right QB to exploit it to perfection. The Bills defense is tough, but I think Darnold grinds it out.
Points: Jets
Victory: Jets
Ravens (-6.5)@ Dolphins: This is the opposite to me of the Eagles spread.. The Dolphins are basically jumping into the tank feet first. And the Ravens will take them to the cleaners
Points: Ravens
Victory: Ravens
Chiefs (-3.5) @ Jaguars: Interesting matchup. The "It" team of the AFC vs the previous "It" team of the AFC. Jags will try and run the ball to keep Mahomes off the field so it will be close but Mahomes is too good. Chiefs cover but not by much
Points: Chiefs
Victory: Chiefs
Titans @ Browns (-5.5): The Browns are looking to live up to the hype of being the sexy pick. The Titans are anything but sexy. And yet, I have a feeling the Browns will get a scare put into them...
Points: Titans
Victory: Browns
Rams (-2)@Panthers: Another interesting spread. Rams coming off a run to the Super Bowl visiting Carolina, where Cam Newton needs to prove he's healthy. Panthers will fight hard, but succumb to talent.
Points: Rams
Victory: Rams
Bengals @ Seahawks (-9.5): The Bengals are not as bad as Miami. but they are close and AJ Green being out will hurt them. And in that noise box....Good luck.
Points: Seahawks
Victory: Seahawks
Colts @ Chargers (-6.5): Speaking of "luck", boy this matchup has certainly been turned on its ear hasn't it? The Colts have to go into an opposing stadium without their leader and with Brissett trying to establish he is one. This spread is close. I think Chargers cover it, but barely. No Gordon will hurt them.
Points: Chargers
Victory: Chargers
Niners @ Buccaneers (-1): PICK'EM!!!!!!!! This is a tough one. This might be Winston's last chance to catch on with Tampa, while San Fran has to figure out what Jimmy G is. I'm going to go with Tampa on the Bruce Arians factor.
Points: Bucs
Victory: Bucs
Lions (-2.5) @ Cardinals: UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKKKKK!!!!!!!!
I remember last year when the Lions opened up at home against a rookie QB and a team that was thought to be bad (and were eventually). They got taken to the woodshed by the Jets. The Cardinals are at home, they are going to have some new tricks up their sleeve. This might be one of a few wins for them, but I do think they win.
Points: Cardinals
Victory: Cardinals
Giants @ Cowboys (-7): This is a little better spread for a divisional game. With Zeke in tow Cowboys will win, I believe. But the Giants will keep it close enough
Points: Giants
Victory: Cowboys
Steelers @ Patriots (-5.5): Pats ownage of the Steelers vs. early season Pats troubles. Give me a combo.
Points: Steelers
Victory: Patriots
Texans @ Saints (-7): This matchup is sexy. Two good QBs with two good teams. But in the Superdome, the young Saints defense will rise to the occasion I think, and keep the Texans at bay. No Lamar Miller for the Texans will hurt too.
Points: Saints
Victory: Saints
Broncos (-2) @ Raiders: Ah the Raiders, the drama queens of the NFL. Their infighting with AB is going to cost Derek Carr a nice weapon and one less worry for a Broncos defense that is ready to hit Carr. Give me the Broncos easy.
Points: Broncos
Victory: Broncos
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