Friday, October 26, 2018

NFL Picks Week 8

I continue to do well against the spread. 8-4 last week, but only 7-7 in the victory column. If last night was any indication, I may be in for the reverse. I took:

Points: Dolphins
Victory: Texans

The Texans blew out the Dolphins so I am 1-0 in the victory column and 0-1 against the spread. So, if you are sitting comfortably, then I will begin.

Eagles (-3) vs. Jaguars (London): In most cases I would take the Jaguars as my upset pick of the week. They have gone to London more than any other NFL team so they are used to this. And the Eagles have been the disappointment of the NFC (non Giants category). However, the Jags were reported after last week's collapse to be fighting amongst themselves in the locker room. Disunity in the locker room is a bad sign all the way around. For that reason, give me the champs

Points: Eagles
Victory: Eagles

Broncos @ Chiefs (-10): On Monday night a few weeks ago Denver almost upset KC. The KC defense is still shaky. Have to take the points but gimme the same outcome as a few weeks ago.

Points: Broncos
Victory: Chiefs

Jets @ Bears (-7.5): The Jets are in injury hell facing a Bears team that has let two games get away consecutively. I have had a weird feeling about this game all week. Not enough to take the upset, but enough to take the points. I think the Bears, as a young team, will have a bit of a letdown.

Points: Jets
Victory: Bears

Browns @ Steelers (-8): Even though the Browns are improved, they still provide a way to cause sadness for their fans. Steelers are coming off a bye and I think they are out for blood. A medium scoring game but I think the Steelers cover

Points: Steelers
Victory: Steelers

Redskins (-1) @ Giants: PICK'EM! The Giants are getting out of Dodge very quickly. How can I take them, even at home? Against the division leaders?

Victory: Redskins

Seahawks @ Lions (-3): The Lions secondary has improved as the year has gone on and the addition of Snacks Harrison from the Giants should help shore up their poor run defense. The fact that Seattle is on the road confirms it

Points: Lions
Victory: Lions

Buccaneers @ Bengals (-3.5): After being embarrassed in prime time by the Chiefs, I think the Bengals get back to form. The Bucs were very lucky to beat the Browns last week (sigh). Gimme the Tigers

Points: Bengals
Victory: Bengals

Ravens (-2.5) @ Panthers: UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!
The Ravens are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Saints while the Panthers are coming off a come from behind victory against the Eagles. And here is a stat to back me up: The Ravens have the top defense in the NFL, but are 7th in yards allowed on the ground compared to 2nd in yds. allowed through the air. The Panthers run oriented offense should be able to move the ball against this defense. Gimme the home team

Points: Panthers
Victory: Panthers

Colts (-3) @ Raiders: The battle of two QBs without any supporting casts around them. This one is tough for me to call, and the spread is very well placed. In the end, give me Luck over Carr.

Points: Colts
Victory: Colts

Niners (-1) @ Cardinals: PICK'EM! This seems to be another suspicious line from Vegas. The Cardinals are the worst team in the NFL. I think Vegas wants us to react to the Niners getting blown out by the Rams. I will not.

Victory: Niners

Packers @ Rams (-9): The largest spread against an Aaron Rodgers led Packers team ever. Packers are coming off of a bye. I think the Packers will get up and keep it close but wont win.

Points: Packers
Victory: Rams

Saints @ Vikings (-1): PICK'EM! For some reason the Vikings seem to struggle at home this year. The Saints, let's face it, got lucky in beating the Ravens. I will take the Vikings, but cautiously.

Victory: Vikings

Patriots (-14) @ Bills: You can see the issue here. That is a humongous spread. And yet I think I have to take it. The Pats have rounded into form and the Bills are out in the cold, literally and figuratively.

Points: Pats
Victory: Pats

Friday, October 19, 2018

NFL Picks Week 7

Last week was a humdinger for me. I lost only 4 games in each category. In the points category, 2 of the 4 games I lost were by half a point. In the victory category, 2 of the 4 games I lost were pick'ems (very even matchups). Only the Giants and Bears really let me down. Speaking of down, I am 0-1 in the Victory Category because I foolishly chose the Cardinals. Why? I have no idea. I was insane. So with that out of the way, if you are sitting comfortably, I will begin.

Chargers (-6.5) vs. Titans (England): The Chargers did something very smart. They stayed in Cleveland after beating up the Browns and flew out of Cleveland to London. I think that will help. Plus the Titans are just so weird. England games have a tendency to be blowouts. Give me the points.

Points: Chargers
Victory: Chargers

Pats (-2.5) @ Bears: If Khalil Mack were totally healthy, I would feel better for the Bears but without that, I don't really like the Bears chances. And again, until they show me reason to doubt, I don't.

Points: Pats
Victory: Pats

Panthers @ Eagles (-5): This game was tempting to me to call the upset. The Eagles kicked the crap out of the Giants but its the Giants. I still think the Eagles are going to win but that spread scares me and the Eagles still scare me.

Points: Panthers
Victory: Eagles

Texans @ Jaguars (-5): Another game that really tempts me to pick it as my upset. But I will not. It will be close. Jags have a problem against mobile QBs the last two weeks, but the Texans have allowed Watson to be the most sacked QB in the NFL this year. Home team pulls it out but close.

Points: Texans
Victory: Jaguars

Vikings (-3.5) @ Jets: This game is too easy for me to call. It's a horrible matchup for the Jets. Jets secondary is too banged up to deal with Minny's receivers. I would be surprised (and pleased) if this game is within 10 points.

Points: Vikings
Victory: Vikings

Bills @ Colts (-7.5): Could be the worst game in the NFL this year. Bills avoiding Pickerman and going with Anderson at QB. The Colts are getting healthier on defense. I think the Colts win but that spread is too big.

Points: Bills
Victory: Colts

Browns @ Buccaneers (-3.5): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!
The Bucs just fired their defensive coordinator. In addition to that, they will be missing key cogs on defense including DT Gerald McCoy and LB Vinny Curry. The Browns are switching RBs, shipping Carlos Hyde off to Jacksonville, giving young Nick Chubb a few more carries. I think the Browns bounce back on the road. and really put Dirk Koetter on the hot seat

Points: Browns
Victory: Browns

Lions (-3) @ Dolphins: This line is suspicious to me. The Dolphins are undefeated at home this year and the heat gives them an added edge. The Lions have been very up and down. This line has a "Vegas knows something" feeling. I will go halfway and hope Vegas has an inkling.

Points: Lions
Victory: Dolphins

Saints @ Ravens (-2.5): One of the more interesting matchups of the year. The key in this game will be Joe Flacco, who has been an enigma his whole career and this year. The Saints defense has regressed from last year. Combine that with the fact that the Saints are out of the dome and it's a good bet on the birds

Points: Ravens
Victory: Ravens

Rams (-10) @ Niners: Last week I played the Niners with the spread against the Pack and got rewarded. This week tempts me again. Adding to the fact that the Rams seem to grind teams out instead of just blowing the doors off is convincing to me to go with the points

Points: Niners
Victory: Rams

Cowboys @ Redskins (-1.5): PICK'EM! The Cowboys have been dominant at home this year, but on the road is another story. Redskins have been Jekyll and Hyde all year. In this case, I think the HFA means a ton. Give me the skins

Victory: Redskins

Bengals (-6) @ Chiefs: Chiefs will bounce back this week against an inconsistent Bengals team that has pulled some rabbits out of their hat.

Points: Chiefs
Victory: Chiefs

Giants @ Falcons (-5): If the Giants can't score over 30 points against this Falcons defense then somebody needs to be fired. The Giants are in disarray, and I will stick with the script that has been their blueprint mostly throughout. Giants defense keeps it close but falls apart late. The Giants do better offensively but it is not enough.

Points: Giants
Victory: Falcons

Friday, October 12, 2018

NFL Picks Week 6

So last night I believed that Saquon Barkley would have a coming out party and the Giants would win. I was right in one regard. He did have a coming out party. Only problem was that he was the only guest and that includes the coaches. 13 carries? SMH. So 0-1 in both categories to begin the week. If you are sitting comfortably, then I shall begin.

Chargers @ Browns (-1): PICK'EM! The Chargers actually showed a backbone last week and beat the Raiders at home and on the road. However they are headed to the Dawg Pound and the Browns are very tough. Gimme the young Browns to continue their rise.

Victory: Browns

Cardinals @ Vikings (-10.5): I almost picked the Cardinals as my upset pick of the week last week and I stopped myself because they were on the road. Shame. As for this week, that is a very high spread to work with. But I think the Vikings, now having tape of Rosen, will be ready for him.

Points: Vikings
Victory: Vikings

Bills @ Texans (-10): I dont know what to make of the Bills. They show up, and they don't show up. In this case, I feel that their past is being overlooked. The Texans needed OT to beat Dallas. This might not get to OT but I think it will be closer than thought.

Points: Bills
Victory: Texans

Panthers @ Redskins (-1): PICK'EM #2! I keep waiting for the Skins pass rush to show up and it doesn't. The Skins lead the NFC Least by default, but I don't like their chances against a stout Carolina defense.

Victory: Panthers

Bears (-3.5) @ Dolphins: This is a tough one to call. I really like the Bears but will they be slowed down by adjustments to Trubisky? I'm not sure. This would be my upset pick of the week secondary, but it's not.

Points: Bears
Victory: Bears

Colts @ Jets (-2.5): I am very much aware of the Jets letdown factor. I know they will not play nearly as well as they did against Denver. However, the other team needs to be able to take advantage of that letdown, and I think the Colts are just too banged up to do it. Looking at a 17-10 or 17-14 game for Gang Green.

Points: Jets
Victory: Jets

Steelers @ Bengals (-1.5):  PICK'EM #3! This is a game and spread that shouts "Vegas knows something" How the Bengals this low favored at home? In my picks 1 and 1.5 are pick'ems. The Bengals have had to rally late recently. And I think they will get burned. Vegas, you better have an inkling.

Victory: Steelers

Seahawks @ Raiders (-2.5): Short and sweet. Got burned by the Raiders last week. Not this time.

Points: Seahawks
Victory: Seahawks

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-3): This has shootout written all over it. Because the Falcons are at home, I give them the slight advantage. If that spread was a little higher, I would have given the Bucs the points. But no

Points: Falcons
Victory: Falcons

Rams (-7) @ Broncos: Broncos got kicked in the groin by the Jets and are regrouping. Rams have to deal with another tough road environment. Once again I think the Rams win but it will be closer.

Points: Broncos
Victory: Rams

Ravens (-2.5) @ Titans: Neither of these teams make much sense. Will the Ravens look good offensively or spit the bit. Baltimore has usually done well against the spread against Tennessee, so on that basis, I will go purple

Points: Ravens
Victory: Ravens

Jaguars (-3) @ Cowboys: UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!
After getting taken to the woodshed by the Chiefs, the Jags have to go to another place that is tough to play. The Cowboys have a much better defense than the Chiefs do. And I think the mobility of Prescott will give the Jaguars things to think about defensively. Gimme the home team

Points: Cowboys
Victory: Cowboys

Chiefs @ Patriots (-3.5): The game everybody has been waiting to see. With a long week to plan Belichick should have something cooked up for Mahomes and crew. And then there is the matter of that Chiefs defense on the road. Seen them way too many times to doubt them

Points: Pats
Victory: Pats

Niners @ Packers (-9.5): If I was only picking the spread itself, this would be my upset pick. The Packers offense has been pedestrian even with Aaron Rodgers. And the Niners have shown to be game at times. And that is a big spread.

Points: Niners
Victory: Packers




Friday, October 5, 2018

NFL Picks Week 5

Had a very good week last week. Went 9-5 against the spread. And I am off to a good start. I took the Pats with the points and they covered. So I am 1-0 in both categories to begin the week. So if you are comfortable, let us begin

Titans (-3) @ Bills: The Titans are a team that one can't really figure. They will have info on Josh Allen but they aren't the type of team that blows people out. If the spread was a little higher, I would take the Bills, but I got burned by them last week.

Points: Titans
Victory: Titans

Dolphins @ Bengals (-6): After getting knocked back to reality by the Patriots, the Dolphins need to regroup. The problem is that the Bengals seem to have a penchant for close late wins. Because of that, I will split the difference

Points: Dolphins
Victory: Bengals

Ravens (-3) @ Browns: Mayfield will have a tougher time facing Terrell Suggs and a well schooled Baltimore defense. Flacco has looked the best he has in years.

Points: Ravens
Victory: Ravens

Packers (-1.5) @ Lions: This is essentially a pick'em, so no point spread pick. I still dont trust the Jekyll and Hyde Lions

Victory: Packers

Jaguars @ Chiefs (-1): Another Pick'em! Top offense in the league vs top defense. The key in this game will be TJ Yeldon running the football and keeping the ball away from Mahomes. And seeing KCs run defense against Denver on MNF, why would I trust them?

Victory: Jaguars

Broncos @ Jets (-1): YET ANOTHER PICK'EM! This seems like a SOJ win. giving false belief that Todd Bowles is a good coach and he should stick around. Because of that and all the other factors with Denver, gimme the green

Victory: Jets

Falcons @ Steelers (-3): I know the Pittsburgh offense has not done well but an injured Falcon defense seems to be the ticket to help that. Home team easy

Points: Steelers
Victory: Steelers

Giants @ Panthers (-7): The season is on the brink for the Giants, but this spread seems a bit too high. This will go like seemingly every Giants game has gone the past 2 years. Defense will keep them in it, but offense will fail to score.

Points: Giants
Victory: Panthers

Raiders @ Chargers (-5.5): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!
The Chargers are coming off a game where they barely beat a rudderless Niners team. The Raiders are coming off a spirited comeback to get Chucky his first win. Plus the Raiders are at home. Or at least it will feel like it given the lack of home support given to the Jets of LA.

Points: Raiders
Victory: Raiders

Vikings @ Eagles (-3): This Eagles defense may be one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL this year. They have not looked good at all. Vikings are desperate. They will win

Points: Vikings
Victory: Vikings

Cardinals @ Niners (-4): If the Cardinals were playing this at home, this would have been my upset pick of the week. Instead they have to go to San Fran to play a game Niners team. Sorry Cardinals.

Points: Niners
Victory: Niners

Rams (-7) @ Seahawks: Rams are the best team in the NFL by a lot. Seattle has no OL. Yet Seattle at home scares me a bit. I think its going to be closer than the experts think.

Points: Seahawks
Victory: Rams

Cowboys @ Texans (-3.5): First game for the Houston Texans ever as a franchise, they beat Dallas on MNF. I like the Texans in this matchup because of the mobility of Watson and the pass rush of Houston.

Points: Texans
Victory: Texans

Redskins@ Saints (-6.5): Think the Saints will win. but that Redskins pass rush will make scoring difficult. Expect a tight game

Points: Redskins
Victory: Saints

Have fun