Greg's 2021 NFL Picks: Week 12.

 I still continue to struggle with the point spreads this year, although I did slightly better with it this week than last week. 4-6 against the spread and 9-5 in the victory column. I also seem to notice in this week in particular that the point spreads are really close, which means the number of pick'ems will be large. I usually do not like to have my upset pick of the week be a pick'em because it kind of cheats the system of what an upset is. But we will see how it shakes out today. Incidentally, a happy Thanksgiving to all of you reading this. My yearly updated record:

Points: 58-74

Victories: 98-64

Draftkings, blah blah blah. I know what you want. Let's get it on.

Bears (-3) @ Lions: GOBBLE GOBBLE UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEKKKK!!!!!!!

You know that meme with the dog drinking a coffee in a room on fire and saying everything's fine? That dog is Matt Nagy right now. Rumors are that this will be his last game with the Bears after "Fire Nagy" chants lit throughout the Chicago area. And what a way for this tenure to end then to be beaten by the hearted Lions in front of a national audience. Goff is back, which is important. Give me the Lions to win their first game

Points: Lions   Victory: Lions

Raiders @ Cowboys (-7.5): This line scares me. The Cowboys looked so inept against KC's defense and they are still without Amari Cooper. Raiders need this game badly to end their slide. I don't think they get it, but I have a feeling they keep it close. The hook scares me in this case.

Points: Raiders   Victory: Cowboys

Bills (-6.5) @ Saints: Outside of two great second halves against Miami and New York, the Bills offense has looked like utter garbage in the last month. I have to think that the Bills are going to make a stand. However, it will be their defense, going against Trevor Siemian, that will be the catalyst. I expect some turnovers and no Kamara for New Orleans will be their doom. 

Points: Bills    Victory: Bills

Eagles (-3.5) @ Giants: The change at OC for the Giants has been greatly welcomed by their fanbase. However, it might not matter if the offense can't get their hands on the football. Philly's run offense has been on a great roll and the Giants run defense is.......meh. Eagles will dominate the TOP (time of possession) and squeeze the life out of the G-Men.

Points: Eagles   Victory: Eagles

Buccaneers (-3) @ Colts: Very sneaky good matchup. The key here is that Vita Vea, the great DL for Tampa Bay, is coming back for this game which will help to nullify the running game of Taylor for the Colts. And at the end of the day, I trust Tom Brady more than Carson Wentz. Give me the Bucs.

Points: Bucs    Victory: Bucs

Titans @ Patriots (-7): I think the Pats are the best team in the AFC, the way they are playing right now. Tennessee is banged up beyond belief, but they do play hard. Tannehill has played the Pats okay in his career. I think the Pats win but they don't cover. Give me the points.

Points: Titans   Victory: Pats

Steelers @ Bengals (-5): Must win game for both teams. Steelers are getting healthier, but they're still missing a lot of players. I was tempted to designate another UPOW for this game, but I don't know if the Steelers will have the manpower to do it. Nevertheless, I do think they keep it close.

Points: Steelers   Victory: Bengals

Panthers (-2) @ Dolphins: PICK'EM! Miami was not really impressive against the Jets. I still don't really believe in them. Cam Newton played solidly against Washington last week and with another week under his belt, he should be even better. I will take the Panthers in this game

Victory: Panthers

Jets @ Texans (-2.5): PICK'EM #2! If this was out of the pick'em range, this would have been my upset pick of the week. Not only is Zach Wilson back, but so is Bryce Huff, a pass rusher who's absence coincides with the Jets defense getting carved like a turkey. Texans only gained 190 yards of offense against Tennessee and mainly won because of turnovers. Jets will get a rare road win this week.

Victory: Jets

Falcons (-2) @ Jaguars: PICK'EM #3! I honestly don't know about this game. Nor really do I care. I'll take Atlanta simply because I trust Arthur Smith more than Urban Meyer.

Victory: Falcons

Chargers (-2.5) @ Broncos: PICK'EM #4! Here is another 'Vegas knows something" line. Chargers coming off a big win against Pittsburgh facing a mediocre Denver team off the bye; and they are only 2.5 point favorites. I don't know if the Broncos have the running game to implement a keep away strategy. I will take the Chargers, although I am wary.

Victory: Chargers

Vikings @ 49ers (-3): A narrative setting game: Are the Niners turned around? Are the Vikings finally playing up to their potential? The Vikings however are limited on the defensive line which will not help them stop the running game of the Niners. I think the Niners win. and hesitantly I will give the points away

Points: Niners   Victory: Niners

Rams (-1) @ Packers: PICK'EM #5! I think this is a game where the Rams reassert themselves against a Packers team that is severely limited because of injuries. 

Victory: Rams

Browns @ Ravens (-4): Lamar Jackson will be back for the Ravens this week and the mystery box will turn to the positive this week. The Browns are in disarray, Baker's calling out the fans etc. I will take the Ravens big this week.

Points: Ravens   Victory: Ravens

Seahawks @ WFT (-1.5): PICK'EM #6! You know, the Heineken man has proven to be very solid at QB for Washington. They have won a couple in a row and have settled themselves in. Meanwhile, Seattle is a complete mess. They look to be falling apart and have no first round pick to comfort themselves with (Thanks Jamal Adams). Hard to say that an organization is more out of sorts than the WFT, but the Seahawks are right now and thusly I will take Washington.

Victory: Football Team

Greg's 2021 NFL Picks: Week 11

 I think if anybody was in a survivor pool this year, they would all be dead by now. So many upsets and surprises all over the place. It's getting me a bit depressed as I continue to struggle, going 2-8 against the spread and only 7-7 in victories. Interestingly enough, most of my best calls were in the 4 pick'em games last week, including my mini upset with the Eagles beating the Broncos. That brings (down) my season total to:

Points: 54-68

Victories: 89-59

You know the deal with the Draftkings Sportsbook, so let's try again:

Patriots (-6.5) @ Falcons: LOVE THIS SPREAD. I expect New England and Mac "THE MAAAOON" Jones to continue to roll. Atlanta disappointed me last week so they need some penalties. Give me New England all night.

Points: Pats    Victory: Pats

Packers (-1.5) @ Vikings: PICK'EM! The Vikings still have to show me they can be consistent in their games. They swing way too wildly. Meanwhile Aaron Rodgers was rusty but soo got back into shape as the Packers shut out the Seahawks. This is a prove it game for Minnesota, and I don't think, especially with the way the Packers defense looked, that they can do it.

Victory: Packers

Texans @ Titans (-10): The Texans have shown me nothing this year. That spread number scares me a little bit because the Titans have lost some of their explosiveness. But, the Texans have befuddled me once too often to trust them again. Give me the Titans

Points: Titans   Victory: Titans

Colts @ Bills (-7): This line is a "Vegas knows something" type of line.  Colts are banged up on defense and shuffling off to Buffalo to face a Bills team that has righted the ship. Colts are going to run the ball to keep Allen off the field. I'm going to split it up I think and trust that Vegas knows something.

Points: Colts    Victory: Bills

49ers (-6.5) @ Jaguars: UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKKKKK!!!!!!

The key in this game to me is the run defense. The Niners are in the bottom 10 of the league in terms of rushing defense including attempts, yards and Y/C. James Robinson has had a very strong season for the Jaguars. He's hurting a bit, but he is practicing. Remember also, the Niners are coming east, which could provide trouble. The Jags were game against the Colts, and I think they steal this game

Points: Jaguars    Victory: Jaguars

Ravens (-5) @ Bears: This is another attempt at an upset I could have had. I think the mystery box of the Ravens will turn the other way again. And while Fields has improved, I don't think that he can take advantage of the Ravens defense, which has been medium. I think the Ravens win and turn the other cheek.

Points: Ravens     Victory: Ravens

Lions @ Browns (-11): The bad news for the Lions is that Jared Goff is leaning towards not playing so they have to go to the Immortal Tim Boyle. Can he pull a Mike White? Probably not, but the Browns are reeling right now with injuries and getting their ass kicked by NE. I think the Browns win, but I think that's a little high for points. I will take those points.

Points: Lions     Victory: Browns

WFT @ Panthers (-3): It looks like a revitalized Cam Newton will be a go for the Panthers this weekend, and as for Washington's defense, I need to see more from them to prove that they are back. I think the Panthers win this game by 5 or 6. 

Points: Panthers   Victory: Panthers

Dolphins (-3.5) @ Jets: A few weeks ago, I took the Rams over the Giants basically as a matter of principle. The Jets over the Dolphins seemed to be Upset Pick material, but that was before the Jets decided to do what they always do; overreact and fear fan reaction for their own players, and chose to start Joe Flacco. After propping up Mike White, they look like fools. And now they should be punished. Dolphins: EASILY

Points: Dolphins    Victory: Dolphins

Saints @ Eagles (-2): PICK'EM #2! Very interesting game featuring two evenly matched teams. The way I decide it? The Eagles are 4-6. All four wins have come on the road. That has to mean something. I will take the Saints to outlast the Eagles in a tight one.

Victory: Saints

Bengals (-1) @ Raiders: PICK'EM #3! After a bye week, I expect the Bengals defense to somewhat stabilize after being thrashed the past two games. The Raiders seem to be on their patented second half swoon, this time due to matters beyond their control. I think the Bengals win this comfortably

Victory: Bengals

Cowboys @ Chiefs (-2.5): PICK'EM #4! Time to see if the Chiefs are truly back or not. Can they string together two impressive performances in a row? I think they do, actually. But Dak will also have a good game and rise to the challenge. I expect a high scoring affair with the Chiefs out on top.

Victory: Chiefs

Cardinals (-2) @ Seahawks: PICK'EM #5!  It looks like Kyler Murray will play against Seattle. Will Russell Wilson blow it again? I don't know, but I have a feeling that Seattle might be giving up a bit on their season, despite their okay record. I don't know. I just think their defense won't be consistent enough to stop Murray. Cardinals, close.

Victory: Cardinals

Steelers @ Chargers (-5.5) The Steelers should be ashamed of themselves for tying the Lions (BTW, that did not count as a win in the victory column for last week). And I think the Chargers, having 3 of 4, sense the urgency of the moment. They need this game badly. And I think they will get it, by a TD, to cover the spread.

Points: Chargers   Victory: Chargers

Giants @ Buccaneers (-11):  I can't see the Giants winning this game. How often has Tom Brady lost 3 games in a row? Once in 2002. However, that point spread is ridiculous, especially if the Giants defense has awoken from it's season long nap at last. I will take the points but pick the Bucs to win.

Points: Giants   Victory: Bucs

Greg's 2021 NFL Picks: Week 10

 I get the feeling a lot of survivor pools blew up last week. There were a ton of upsets, some that came out of absolutely nowhere. And despite my upset pick of the week getting back on track, I got killed in the points game yet again. A miserable, disgusting 4-7 against the spread. Even in victories, I barely eked out a winning record with an 8-6 round. That brings my overall totals to:

Points: 52-60

Victories: 82-52

So let's see how many more picks I can mess up, with the help of the DraftKings Sportsbook, as we enter Week #10.

Ravens (-8) @ Dolphins:  The Jekyll and Hyde nature of the Ravens plus the usual Thursday night mishaps really scare me with this pick. But the Dolphins are really bad. Very hesitantly, I am going to give the points away, But I'm worried about it.

Points: Ravens   Victory: Ravens

Bills (-11) @ Jets: This line has actually come down in recent days and I understand. The Bills offense has looked like garbage the last two weeks, the Jets are much better at home than the road and Mike White, International Man of Mystery, is back at QB. I have to believe the Bills feel the Pats breathing down their necks and get their act in gear. Close for a half but Bills pull away late.

Points: Bills   Victory: Bills

Buccaneers (-8) @ WFT:  Not much to say here. Will be shocked if the Bucs don't cover. Washington's defense is garbage.

Points: Bucs   Victory: Bucs

Falcons @ Cowboys (-8): If the Cowboys hadn't looked so flat against Denver, I would be keying in on this as my upset pick of the week. That being said, Dallas is now without Randy Gregory a key pass rusher. And Denver did expose the aggressiveness of their secondary. I could see this being a high scoring close game. Give me the points here.

Points: Falcons   Victory: Cowboys

Lions @ Steelers (-8): I have bet the Lions to upset a team twice this year and both times they were blown out. Can I see the Lions keeping this particular game close? Yeah, because I really don't trust the Steelers. But I don't have enough faith in them to win. So watch them win here because of me. You're welcome Detroit.

Points: Lions    Victory: Steelers

Saints @ Titans (-2.5): PICK'EM!  This is a tough one because the Saints defense is very good. But their offense is a problem. I don't think their offense with Trevor is good enough to score enough to beat the Titans at Tennessee. Give me the Titans

Victory: Titans

Jaguars @ Colts (-10): Another interesting one that shows a lot of people don't believe what the Jags did last week is for real. This line bothers me. The Colts defense gave up a ton yards to Josh Johnson last week even in garbage time. They did not impress me. Nevertheless, I will believe in the Colts to put up enough to cover. 

Points: Colts    Victory: Colts

Browns @ Patriots (-2.5): PICK'EM #2! I've been waiting for a game where Mac Jones is going to have to elevate his game and win it for the Pats, instead of being a game manager, which he's been most of the year. This might be the game for that, as the Browns seem to be on track offensively. I think this is the day Mac Jones BECOMES A MAAAAOONN! Give me the Pats

Victory: Pats

Panthers @ Cardinals (-10.5): I doubt that Cam Newton can get up to speed fast enough to start for the Panthers this week. And even if he was, the Cardinals are awesome. Now they are getting the respect they deserve and I think they will roll. Hook scares me a bit, but I will give the points away.

Points: Cardinals   Victory: Cardinals

Vikings @ Chargers (-3): The Vikings have found ways to lose all year, so I have no doubt in my mind that they will continue to do so in a brutalizing fashion. I will take the Chargers by a late field goal to beat Minnesota and continue that trend.

Points: Chargers   Victory: Chargers

Eagles @ Broncos (-2.5): PICK'EM #3! If this was a half point farther to the Broncos, this would be my upset pick of the week. I love the Eagles in this game. I think they have found the perfect combo of rushing and passing to make their offense work. And I think last week was more a product of the Cowboys being meh than the Broncos being good. I will take the Eagles on the road.

Victory: Eagles

Seahawks @ Packers (-3): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!

Russell Wilson is coming back apparently for this game which is huge. Rodgers will also be back, just squeaking in under the wire. But there are a few questions I have about that. The first one is the matter of preparation for the team he will face, which really shouldn't be a problem. But the second one has to do with his condition. We've seen players come back from COVID and they look shaky. I think this happens a bit and Seattle, in desperation mode, gets a big win.

Points: Seahawks    Victory: Seahawks

Chiefs (-2.5) @ Raiders: PICK'EM #4!  This is a big game for both teams. Vegas coming off a bad loss to the G-Men and the Chiefs continue to lope along by the skin of their teeth. At the end of the day, I have to lean towards talent again and question if the Raiders are ready for this. I will take the Chiefs in a close game.

Victory: Chiefs

Rams (-3.5) @ 49ers: Well this game all of the sudden got more buzz as OBJ was suddenly added on as the Rams go for broke this year. I'm sorry, the Niners are bad. This line should be bigger, especially off an upset loss to Tennessee. Give me the Rams EASILY.

Points: Rams   Victory: Rams

Greg's 2021 NFL Picks: Week 9

 Well my momentum stopped dead in its tracks. I went a disgusting 4-9 against the spread and 7-8 in the victory column. I misread a lot of games, including missing both my upset picks (Screw you Lions), so yeah.... Well, all that remains for me to do is to try again this week. Here's the record

Points: 48-53

Victories: 74-46

So using once again the DraftKings sportsbook for the odds, let's climb up the hill again.

Jets @ Colts (-10): This line bothers me for several reasons. I don't think the Colts are that better than the Jets, plus it's a Thursday night game which tend to be very sluggish and sloppy, and the Colts are coming off an all in heartbreaking loss to the Titans. I think the Colts will win but I can't give that huge amount away under these conditions. Gimme the points.

Points: Jets    Victory: Colts

Bills (-14.5) @ Jaguars: The Bills had a bit of a scare last week but pulled away. I expect ironing out the details this week and the Bills kicking the crap out of the Jaguars

Points: Bills   Victory: Bills

Broncos @ Cowboys (-10): I know Dak Prescott may be out again (leaning towards positive now), but the Broncos are awful. They tried to give me my upset last week and barely got away with it. Give me dem Cowboys.

Points: Cowboys   Victory: Cowboys

Vikings @ Ravens (-6): On paper, these teams are very even statistically, but the Vikings are hurting really badly. They lost Danielle Hunter for the year, they had to put their center on the COVID list. I think this will hurt them in this game and the Ravens will win. I think they win a TD so give those points away.

Points: Ravens    Victory: Ravens

Patriots (-3.5) @ Panthers: Even if it's not a haunting reunion (hehe) for Sam Darnold, I really like the Pats in this game. The Panthers can't score on offense and CMC seems like he's a week away, but even if he plays, I think Belichick will take him away, like he does all the time.

Points: Pats    Victory: Pats

Raiders (-3.5) @ Giants: The Raiders did the right thing this week cutting Henry Ruggs immediately so that will not be a distraction. The Giants are once again, banged up with COVID and broken headsets. Seriously, Joe Judge should be ashamed of himself for that. Raiders will cover easily

Points: Raiders    Victory: Raiders

Falcons @ Saints (-6): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKKKK!

I have to be honest. I was not going to pick this as my upset, as I had other options. But I didn't like any of the other options due to circumstances. Anyway, the Saints have been Jekyll and Hyde this year, they're coming off a massive win so a letdown could happen, and they will have to start Trevor Semien for a whole game with a team that has time to prepare. This is kind of a long shot, but thanks to some of my Twitter colleagues, I will go for it. 

Points: Falcons   Victory: Falcons

Texans @ Dolphins (-5.5): I know the Texans are hot garbage but so are the Dolphins. They played hard against Buffalo, but they're not that good. To me, this is a perfect line. This is where I would put the line. Tempted to take the points, but the Texans are so bad and they've screwed me so many times.

I can't do it.

Points: Dolphins    Victory: Dolphins

Browns @ Bengals (-2.5): PICK'EM!  The Bengals have to be licking their wounds after being the victims of Mike White and the Jets last week. And the Browns are currently staring at the crossroads in multiple ways. I think the Bengals bounce back in a major way.

Victory: Bengals

Chargers (-2) @ Eagles: PICK'EM #2! This line smacks of recency bias. Eagles kicked the crap out of the Lions and the Chargers lost to the Patriots. I think the Chargers win relatively easily. If they don't, time to sound the alarm bells.

Victory: Chargers

Packers @ Chiefs (-7.5): This game was a pick'em 2 days ago. Rodgers moved the needle that much. Although I am hesitant on the Chiefs because they have been icky this year, I have to think that they cover this. If they can't cover this, they are really screwed. I'll go with them, but they are sticking their neck out.

Points: Chiefs    Victory: Chiefs

Cardinals @ Niners (-1): PICK'EM #3: This is an odd line too. After only one loss, the Cardinals are a one point underdog against the Niners? I'm sorry, even if Kyler Murray is out, I think the Cardinals have enough talent to get by, even if it is with Colt McCoy. I like the Cardinals

Victory: Cardinals

Titans @ Rams (-7.5): TBH, I'm surprised this line isn't a little bit bigger. Titans without their lord and master, Derrick Henry. Rams trading for Von Miller and going for broke in the NFC. The Rams will win and win handily I think as we see how much Henry was needed for the Titans.

Points: Rams    Victory: Rams

Bears @ Steelers (-6): Once again, with all honesty, this was going to be my upset pick of the week until I found out that Matt Nagy is going to be back on the sidelines. How depressing must that be for a Bears fan that their coach depresses their chances of winning upon returning? It's as close to Adam Gase as you can get. I think the Steelers win BUT....the Steelers are blah too so I will take those points.

Points: Bears     Victory: Steelers