I still continue to struggle with the point spreads this year, although I did slightly better with it this week than last week. 4-6 against the spread and 9-5 in the victory column. I also seem to notice in this week in particular that the point spreads are really close, which means the number of pick'ems will be large. I usually do not like to have my upset pick of the week be a pick'em because it kind of cheats the system of what an upset is. But we will see how it shakes out today. Incidentally, a happy Thanksgiving to all of you reading this. My yearly updated record:
Points: 58-74
Victories: 98-64
Draftkings, blah blah blah. I know what you want. Let's get it on.
Bears (-3) @ Lions: GOBBLE GOBBLE UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEKKKK!!!!!!!
You know that meme with the dog drinking a coffee in a room on fire and saying everything's fine? That dog is Matt Nagy right now. Rumors are that this will be his last game with the Bears after "Fire Nagy" chants lit throughout the Chicago area. And what a way for this tenure to end then to be beaten by the hearted Lions in front of a national audience. Goff is back, which is important. Give me the Lions to win their first game
Points: Lions Victory: Lions
Raiders @ Cowboys (-7.5): This line scares me. The Cowboys looked so inept against KC's defense and they are still without Amari Cooper. Raiders need this game badly to end their slide. I don't think they get it, but I have a feeling they keep it close. The hook scares me in this case.
Points: Raiders Victory: Cowboys
Bills (-6.5) @ Saints: Outside of two great second halves against Miami and New York, the Bills offense has looked like utter garbage in the last month. I have to think that the Bills are going to make a stand. However, it will be their defense, going against Trevor Siemian, that will be the catalyst. I expect some turnovers and no Kamara for New Orleans will be their doom.
Points: Bills Victory: Bills
Eagles (-3.5) @ Giants: The change at OC for the Giants has been greatly welcomed by their fanbase. However, it might not matter if the offense can't get their hands on the football. Philly's run offense has been on a great roll and the Giants run defense is.......meh. Eagles will dominate the TOP (time of possession) and squeeze the life out of the G-Men.
Points: Eagles Victory: Eagles
Buccaneers (-3) @ Colts: Very sneaky good matchup. The key here is that Vita Vea, the great DL for Tampa Bay, is coming back for this game which will help to nullify the running game of Taylor for the Colts. And at the end of the day, I trust Tom Brady more than Carson Wentz. Give me the Bucs.
Points: Bucs Victory: Bucs
Titans @ Patriots (-7): I think the Pats are the best team in the AFC, the way they are playing right now. Tennessee is banged up beyond belief, but they do play hard. Tannehill has played the Pats okay in his career. I think the Pats win but they don't cover. Give me the points.
Points: Titans Victory: Pats
Steelers @ Bengals (-5): Must win game for both teams. Steelers are getting healthier, but they're still missing a lot of players. I was tempted to designate another UPOW for this game, but I don't know if the Steelers will have the manpower to do it. Nevertheless, I do think they keep it close.
Points: Steelers Victory: Bengals
Panthers (-2) @ Dolphins: PICK'EM! Miami was not really impressive against the Jets. I still don't really believe in them. Cam Newton played solidly against Washington last week and with another week under his belt, he should be even better. I will take the Panthers in this game
Victory: Panthers
Jets @ Texans (-2.5): PICK'EM #2! If this was out of the pick'em range, this would have been my upset pick of the week. Not only is Zach Wilson back, but so is Bryce Huff, a pass rusher who's absence coincides with the Jets defense getting carved like a turkey. Texans only gained 190 yards of offense against Tennessee and mainly won because of turnovers. Jets will get a rare road win this week.
Victory: Jets
Falcons (-2) @ Jaguars: PICK'EM #3! I honestly don't know about this game. Nor really do I care. I'll take Atlanta simply because I trust Arthur Smith more than Urban Meyer.
Victory: Falcons
Chargers (-2.5) @ Broncos: PICK'EM #4! Here is another 'Vegas knows something" line. Chargers coming off a big win against Pittsburgh facing a mediocre Denver team off the bye; and they are only 2.5 point favorites. I don't know if the Broncos have the running game to implement a keep away strategy. I will take the Chargers, although I am wary.
Victory: Chargers
Vikings @ 49ers (-3): A narrative setting game: Are the Niners turned around? Are the Vikings finally playing up to their potential? The Vikings however are limited on the defensive line which will not help them stop the running game of the Niners. I think the Niners win. and hesitantly I will give the points away
Points: Niners Victory: Niners
Rams (-1) @ Packers: PICK'EM #5! I think this is a game where the Rams reassert themselves against a Packers team that is severely limited because of injuries.
Victory: Rams
Browns @ Ravens (-4): Lamar Jackson will be back for the Ravens this week and the mystery box will turn to the positive this week. The Browns are in disarray, Baker's calling out the fans etc. I will take the Ravens big this week.
Points: Ravens Victory: Ravens
Seahawks @ WFT (-1.5): PICK'EM #6! You know, the Heineken man has proven to be very solid at QB for Washington. They have won a couple in a row and have settled themselves in. Meanwhile, Seattle is a complete mess. They look to be falling apart and have no first round pick to comfort themselves with (Thanks Jamal Adams). Hard to say that an organization is more out of sorts than the WFT, but the Seahawks are right now and thusly I will take Washington.
Victory: Football Team
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