Greg's 2021 NFL Picks: WEEK 4

 Another solid week for me in Week 3. I went 8-6 against the spread and 9-7 in the victory department. I hit on one of my upset picks and should have been both if not my friend on Twitter (he knows who he is) convinced me against picking one of my upsets (more on that later): Thusly after 3 weeks:

Points: 22-20

Victory: 28-20

Once again the odds are provided by Draftkings Sportsbook, and if you are ready....We shall begin:\

Jaguars @ Bengals (-7.5): The hook is tricky here. I like the Bengals to win but Jacksonville put up a solid fight against Arizona the previous week. And there is usually sloppy ball on short weeks. But the way the Jaguars fell apart so quickly in that game bothers me. Hesitantly, I will take the Bengals with the points

Points: Bengals    Victory: Bengals

Chiefs (-7) @ Eagles: Not saying its time to panic for KC but their defense has been really blah and they have had their problems covering spreads in games. Philly got slaughtered in Dallas. In the end, is Philly's offense good enough to exploit the Chiefs defensive weaknesses? I say no. Again hesitantly

Points: Chiefs   Victory: Chiefs

Titans (-7) @ Jets: Without AJ Brown and potentially Julio Jones, Titans will have to go ground and pound against the Jets. This spread line is perfect given the ineptness of the Jets offense. They have to prove to me they can score. Until then, I can't take them at this number

Points: Titans   Victory: Titans

Texans @ Bills (-17): I'm sorry. I know the Bills have gone on a rampage and the Texans are starting Davis Mills. I can't give 17 points away. If they win by more than that, congratulations. I just can't do it.

Points: Texans   Victory: Bills

Giants @ Saints (-7.5) This has the makings of a disaster for the Giants. The Superdome will be rocking in the first game there this year. I am done believing in the Giants. They had their chance last week. If this isn't a double digit victory, I will be stunned.

Points: Saints   Victory: Saints

Panthers @ Cowboys (-4): The Panthers have not really been involved in a shootout game thanks to their great defense. Here might be the first one. The Cowboys are rolling offensively and Carolina's desperate for CBs. (they just traded for one). Not soon enough to bother Dallas. Plus no CMC for the Panthers. Think Dallas wins by a TD.

Points: Cowboys   Victory: Cowboys

Lions @ Bears (-3):  UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It is supposed to be raining at Soldier Field on gameday so the ground game will be crucial. I expect Lions RBs D'Andre Swift and Ty Johnson to have big days. But most of all, I just don't trust the Bears offense or Matt Nagy at all. Give me the Lions to get their first win of the year.

Points: Lions      Victory: Lions

Browns (-2) @ Vikings: PICK'EM!  This to me feels like a "Vegas knows something" line. I know the Vikings beat Seattle last week, but I still don't trust them. And going against a Browns team that seems to be rolling along.... Yeah I don't get why this line is close. Give me the Browns

Victory: Browns

Colts @ Dolphins (-2): PICK'EM #2!  The key to this game is if the Colts can execute better in the red zone than they did against Tennessee. I think they do. And after the brain bending mistakes Miami pulled against the Raiders (the safety in particular) I trust Frank Reich over Brian Flores. Give me the Colts

Victory: Colts

WFT (-1) @ Falcons: PICK'EM #3!  I just don't trust Washington's defense right now. They have probably been the most disappointing unit in the NFL. And I think Matt Ryan will grit themselves to a second straight victory at home. 

Victory: Falcons

Cardinals @ Rams (-4.5): I think there is a chance the Rams might have a bit of a letdown in this game after destroying Tampa Bay. The Cardinals struggled a bit against Jacksonville but pulled away late. But throw in a divisional rivalry and that letdown. I think they keep it close.

Points: Cardinals    Victory: Rams

Seahawks @ 49ers (-3): Like with the Giants, I am approaching the end with Seattle. Their defense is just bad. They are so bad that their offense has the LOWEST time of possession in the NFL. Now that's also because they score quickly. But their defense sucks. I will take the Niners. They should be pissed and they will run it.

Points: Niners     Victory: Niners

Steelers @ Packers (-6.5): I hate my friend for psyching me out of picking the Bengals last week. I wanted to pick them so bad and he talked me out of it. Damn him. I will not make the same mistake this week. With no pass rush against him, Rodgers will make mincemeat of the Steelers defense

Points: Packers    Victory: Packers

Ravens @ Broncos (-1): PICK'EM #4! This is the big test that people have been waiting for with Denver. Can they beat a competent NFL team? What people might not have realized is that they got banged a lot in the Jets win so I don't think they are going to be at full strength so I will take Baltimore to pop their bubble.

Victory: Ravens

Buccaneers (-6.5) @ Patriots: The Return. The Homecoming. Whatever you call it, I think it spells doom for New England. Not because of Tom Brady. Not because of what Tampa Bay is coming in off of, but because of the Buccaneers defensive line against a NE offensive line that has been been very poor in the early going. No James White for the rest of the season for them either so a weapon taken away. I think the Bucs dominate. 

Points: Bucs     Victory: Bucs

Raiders @ Chargers (-3.5): Very interesting game. I think the Chargers win, but there is doubt in my mind. Not enough to pick the Raiders outright, but enough to hedge my bet.

Points: Raiders   Victory: Chargers

Greg's NFL Picks: WEEK 3

 I bounced back in a big way last week, although I got killed in the late games. 8-6 against the spread and 10-6 the game itself(caught my Lions typo, hehe). That brings my 2 week total to:

14-14 against the spread

19-13 picking straight

Once again, the odds are provided by the DraftKings Sportsbook and without further ado....

CHARGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Panthers (-8.5) @ Texans: Sam Darnold, while not flashy, has been effective in the first two games. But the real key is the fact that Davis Mills is now starting QB for the Texans. That spells trouble. Give the points away even on the road.

Points: Panthers   Victory: Panthers

Cardinals (-7.5) @ Jaguars: That was a huge win for Arizona last week as it showed that it could handle prosperity. Now they get a Jacksonville team that is completely over its head. However the hook is scaring me a bit. Hesitantly, I will give the points away

Points: Cardinals   Victory: Cardinals

Ravens (-7.5) @ Lions: The Ravens have to be careful here. Coming a MASSIVE Sunday night win against the Chiefs, the trap may be waiting for them in Detroit. And their defense has been a disappointment this year. I'm taking the points in this case, but the Ravens will win

Points: Lions   Victory: Ravens

WFT @ Bills (-7.5): The Bills reasserted their dominance last week and now I think they're going to do the same to Washington, who were lucky to squeak by the Giants last week. Bills by a lot

Points: Bills   Victory: Bills

Chargers @ Chiefs (-6.5): The worst thing that could have happened to the Chargers was the Chiefs losing that game last week. They are angry and out for blood. Chargers, as usual, gave away a game that they should have won "at home". Not this week. They won't have a chance

Points: Chiefs   Victory: Chiefs

Titans (-5) @ Colts: The Colts currently are in QB limbo as they fell victim to the walking injury, Carson Wentz. And that is a big factor in this game, because the Tennessee defense has been blaaaaaaaaaaah. As of Thursday, I am not expecting Wentz to play and thusly I think Tennessee wins by a TD.

Points: Titans    Victory: Titans

Bears @ Browns (-7): Sneaky good game possibility. What will Justin Fields bring to the party in his first start? If it's anything like last week, they are in trouble. This one is very close to me. But I will give the Browns the benefit of the doubt and hope that they can exploit the rookie QB.

Points: Browns   Victory: Browns

Falcons @ Giants (-3): This is it for the Giants. The fork in the road. They HAVE to win this game. Otherwise I feel the season will spiral out of control given their schedule. And I think that Joe Judge and crew will get the job done. 

Points: Giants   Victory: Giants

Saints @ Patriots (-3): This might be the game where Mac Jones will have to make a few plays himself instead of managing the game only. Will he be capable? I think he could be. And after picking off Zach Wilson 4 times last week, what will they do against the Human Pick Machine, Jameis Winston?

Points: Pats   Victory: Pats

Bengals @ Steelers (-3): I am ACHING over this one. The Steelers are really banged up, but the Bengals let me down last week. And the Bengals are 8-24 against Big Ben. I think the Steelers losing to the Raiders last week might get them up for this game so I think I will split the difference

Points: Bengals   Victory: Steelers

Jets @ Broncos (-10): I absolutely HATE this line. Broncos might walking into a bit of a trap after starting 2-0; the Jets defense has been very solid so far, and it would be very hard pressed for Zach Wilson to have a worse game than he did last week. Gimme those points.

Points: Jets   Victory: Broncos

Dolphins @ Raiders (-4.5): This is what the Jets Broncos line should have been along with this game. Raiders are another team that might be walking into a bit of a trap. Jacoby Brissett has shown to be a capable QB in the NFL and the Dolphins will be looking for payback after getting blown out by Buffalo last week. I will take the Raiders with the points, albeit reluctantly.

Points: Raiders    Victory: Raiders

Buccaneers (-1.5) @ Rams: PICK'EM!!!!!! I know the Rams are at home and I know Stafford has been solid. I can't pick against Brady and the Bucs at this point. They are rolling to begin.

Victory: Bucs

Seahawks (-1.5) @ Vikings: PICK'EM #2 !!!!!!!  Just like with the Giants, this is do or die time for Minnesota after two heartbreaking losses. Unfortunately, like the Chargers, they get an opponent who should very pissed. Seattle gave the Titans a win last week and they want to make up for it. 

Victory: Seahawks

Packers @ 49ers (-3):  UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKKKKK!!!

Let's be honest. The Niners have been unimpressive so far this year. They almost gave up a huge lead to Detroit in Week 1 and then allowed an inferior Eagles team to hang around in Week 2. Packers are still trying to make up for the disaster in Week 1. I think the Packers go in and get a hard fought victory.

Points: Packers   Victory: Packers

Eagles @ Cowboys (-3): ANOTHER UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKK!!!!!!

This is one that I did not think about when starting to type this out, but I began to think. Dallas is without Collins at RT and Gallup at WR. Cooper has bruised ribs as well. They are a few flags away from being 0-2. As for Philly, if they want to be taken seriously, they need to win this game. I think they will. I am sticking my neck out for this one.

Points: Eagles    Victory: Eagles

Greg's 2021 NFL Picks: WEEK 2

Last week was a blah week for me; I went 6-8 in the points category and 9-7 in the victory column. I did nail some close games including my UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK, so I feel okay. So now we enter Week 2. Once again, the odds are provided by Draft Kings Sportsbook (where's my money). Pick'em is 2.5 points or lower and a push is a win for me.

LET'S GO

Giants @ WFT (-3.5): This line moved in recent hours from 3 up so I'm a little worried about this game. Giants are in a bit of disarray as they move around their OL but Washington is forced to go to their backup QB. In the end, I'm going to take the plunge. UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Daniel Jones is 4-0 against Washington and 2-17 against everybody else. That ownership will continue. Barely.

Points: Giants  Victory: Giants

49ers (-2.5) @ Eagles: PICK'EM!!! While the Eagles were impressive against the Falcons, the Niners were equally impressive against the Lions. And that near collapse will not have them resting on their laurels very long. Niners win

Victory: Niners

Rams (-3.5) @ Colts: Another NFC West team travels into Indy and I think the same thing happens though to a slightly lesser degree. Nevertheless, the point spread is just thin enough for me to give'em away

Points: Rams  Victory: Rams

Texans @ Browns (-12.5): This is clearly an overreaction line. Browns should win this game but the Texans were very game against Jacksonville and I expect them to be the same way. Too big a line

Points: Texans  Victory: Browns

Saints (-3.5) @ Panthers: The Panthers were NOT impressive in their victory over the Jets, and I think the Saints have come out with a point to prove. I think the Saints win by 6or 7 so give the points away

Points: Saints  Victory: Saints

Bills (-3) @ Dolphins: Most people would have thought the record would have been the other way. Miami was frankly lucky to win that New England game last week, and Buffalo should play with a major chip on their shoulder. Give the points and take the Bills

Points: Bills  Victory: Bills

Patriots (-5.5) @ Jets: The Pats should have won last week and they know it. Now they will take out their anger on a young injured Jets team. If Zach Wilson stays alive, it's a win for them.

Points: Pats    Victory: Pats

Broncos (-6) @ Jaguars: The Broncos as a team, were one of the more impressive stories in Week 1 and as for Urban Meyer, the honeymoon is already coming to an end. The spread is high but I'm going to take the chance that Denver does it again

Points: Broncos    Victory: Broncos

Raiders @ Steelers (-6.5): The Steelers have been a bit of an enigma the last few years so I would not be surprised at a letdown this week a bit. They win, but the game is closer than people think

Points: Raiders   Victory: Steelers

Bengals @ Bears (-2.5): PICK'EM #2:  If this game had a 3 points spread, this might have been my upset pick of the week. I think the Bengals ride high into Chicago and beat up the Bears. They showed they could withstand a nice DL in Minnesota and now they will do it again.

Victory: Bengals

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-12.5): This 12.5 point spread is more justifiable than the previous one. The problems is that I already took the Bucs with a high spread once and it failed. I'm not going to do it again, even if it may be closer to that line

Points: Falcons    Victory: Buccaneers

Vikings @ Cardinals (-3.5): This is another game where the hook scares me a little bit. I believe the Cardinals are the better team but they also have consistency problems. Cardinals win but closer than you think

Points: Vikings  Victory: Cardinals

Cowboys @ Chargers (-3.5): The sneaky game of the day. Cowboys looked impressive against Tampa in defeat, and the Chargers eased over Washington. I will stick with the Chargers here by a TD, so give the points away

Points: Chargers  Victory: Chargers

Titans @ Seahawks (-6): I think the Seahawks are on a mission this year to maybe disprove some doubters and they will look to steamroll Tennessee in their opener. I have the feeling of another blowout loss for the Titans and growing concern there.

Points: Seahawks  Victory: Seahawks

Chiefs (-3.5) @ Ravens: The Ravens better get their new running backs more room because having Lamar consistently carry the football is going to lead to pain. The Chiefs will exploit that problem and win the game well in hand

Points: Chiefs   Victory: Chiefs

Lions @ Packers (-11.5): This one is tough because the line is somewhat fair but the Packers will be out for blood after being embarrassed against the Saints. I'm going to bite the bullet and say, like the Pats, the Packers will show no mercy against Lions and blow them out. 

Points: Packers  Victory: Lions

Greg's 2021 NFL Picks....Week 1

 You thought I was kidnapped didn't you?

Nope, I've really had nothing to talk about over the past few months. The thoughts that I have considered putting on here really haven't been shaped enough to create a full blog post. But now, something has brought me back.

That something is football.

All the previous rules apply. A pick'em game counts as a game with a spread at 2.5 points or lower. A push counts as a win.  The one real difference is that this year, I am making the prediction on Thursday so that I can include TNF into the foray. My odds come from the Draft Kings Sports Book (which is getting more commercial time than car insurance these days).

With that being said. Let's get cracking:

\Cowboys @ Buccaneers (-9): This is a tough line for me. Not having Zach Martin is going to be a huge blow to Dallas protecting against a stout Bucs defense. But by 9 plus points? I'm going to give the points very hesitantly

Points: Bucs        Victory: Bucs

Lions @ 49ers (-7.5): I think the Niners, who are looking to stay healthy for the first time in awhile, are going to get on the right track and steamroll Detroit methodically. The hook scares me a bit but I will give the points

Points: Niners     Victory: Niners

Steelers @ Bills (-6.5): The Steelers have to realize that this is Big Ben's last good shot with this cast and they are a proud bunch. And I think Buffalo will work on their ground game, which was their weak point last year. Therefore, I will split the difference and take the points

Points: Steelers     Victory: Bills

Eagles @ Falcons (-3.5): While I believe the Falcons are heading for a mediocre meh season with Matt Ryan's last stand, I think they handle Philly rather easily. I don't know why. Philly's got a lot of ickiness going on right now to me.

Points: Falcons    Victory: Falcons

Jets @ Panthers (-4): Carolina's offensive line scares the crap out of me in this game. The Jets front four, even without Carl Lawson is very strong. I think the Jets keep it close but Carolina out talents them at the end. Good spread line but I will give the points away.

Points: Panthers    Victory: Panthers

Vikings (-3.5) @ Bengals: Reports out of Cincy are that Joe Burrow still really hasn't regained his mental form from last year after the injury. And a revamped Vikings defense should beat him up pretty well. It's on the road, but surprised the spread isn't a bit higher. Give those points away

Points: Vikings    Victory: Vikings

Cardinals @ Titans (-3): This is a very important year for both of these teams. Cardinals looking to see if Kyler Murray is the one while Tennessee needs to capitalize on the hot years for Derrick Henry. This is projected to be a shootout and ball control will be key. Thusly, give those points and take the Titans

Points: Titans     Victory: Titans

Seahawks (-2.5) @ Colts: PICK'EM!!!!!  This to me has the feeling of one of the games that Vegas knows something. Maybe they think Seattle isn't as strong on the road or will suffer the earlier time slot. Seattle spits in that as they have won 11 of their last 12 early games. Give me Seattle

Victory: Seattle

Chargers @ WFT (-1): ANOTHER PICK'EM!!!!!!!! I can understand this game being considered close. Even though I think the Chargers are the better team, they have been the masters of pulling defeat from the jaws of victory the last few years. And Washington's defense is very good. If Herbert is going to take that jump, this is a game that he should win. And I think he will.

Victory: Chargers

Jaguars (-3) @ Texans: The Texans have replaced the Jets as having the worst roster in the NFL this year. And the whole Watson thing hangs like a dark cloud over them. If Lawrence and Meyer can't win this game...hooo boy. I think they will though

Points: Jaguars      Victory: Jaguars

Packers (-3.5) @ Saints: While the Jags are in Houston, the Saints will be using their field because of the hurricane. This spread to me is a little too close for this game being held in Jacksonville. Would not be shocked if the spread goes up. I think the Packers win by the spread

Points: Packers     Victory: Packers

Browns @ Chiefs (-5.5): You've noticed I've given a lot of points away so far. Not here. The Browns played the Chiefs very close in their playoff matchup in January, and I think they will have what it takes to keep the game close. I think the Chiefs eke out a victory, but gimme those points. Probably the game of the day

Points: Browns      Victory: Chiefs

Broncos (-3) @ Giants: I wanted to pick the Giants in this game so badly, but they are just too banged up for me to pick them outright. Nevertheless, this matchup appears winnable to me, if they can control the ball. And their injury report is a bit nebulous. So I am going to split the difference here. Don't let me down, G-Men.

Points: Giants     Victory: Broncos

Dolphins @ Patriots (-3): The Patriots somnambulance (look it up) in the early parts of seasons put me on somewhat of an alert for this game. But the Dolphins, like the Giants, are banged up and Belichick is out for blood and vengeance. I will give the points and take New England, a little hesitantly

Points: Pats      Victory: Pats

Bears @ Rams (-7.5): Can Matthew Stafford be the spark that can get the Rams back to the Super Bowl? Time will tell, but he will have to prove it. This spread is a little dangerous for me, but after seeing Dalton flop around in the preseason, I think I will chance it.

Points: Rams     Victory: Rams

Ravens (-4) @ Raiders:    here it comes.....

UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!!!!!!!!!!!!

As I have been typing this, the Ravens have had two players tear ACLs (maybe) (not joking). Star CB Marcus Peters looks like he will be out, while RB Gus Edwards becomes the 3rd THAT'S RIGHT! THIRD Ravens running back to suffer a significant injury. That puts a ton more pressure on Lamar Jackson and more focus for the defense. Combine that with it being a road game and I think the Raiders pull the rug out.

Points: Raiders      Victory: Raiders

Well there they are. Let's see how we do.