Thursday, September 30, 2021

Greg's 2021 NFL Picks: WEEK 4

 Another solid week for me in Week 3. I went 8-6 against the spread and 9-7 in the victory department. I hit on one of my upset picks and should have been both if not my friend on Twitter (he knows who he is) convinced me against picking one of my upsets (more on that later): Thusly after 3 weeks:

Points: 22-20


Victory: 28-20


Once again the odds are provided by Draftkings Sportsbook, and if you are ready....We shall begin:\


Jaguars @ Bengals (-7.5): The hook is tricky here. I like the Bengals to win but Jacksonville put up a solid fight against Arizona the previous week. And there is usually sloppy ball on short weeks. But the way the Jaguars fell apart so quickly in that game bothers me. Hesitantly, I will take the Bengals with the points

Points: Bengals    Victory: Bengals


Chiefs (-7) @ Eagles: Not saying its time to panic for KC but their defense has been really blah and they have had their problems covering spreads in games. Philly got slaughtered in Dallas. In the end, is Philly's offense good enough to exploit the Chiefs defensive weaknesses? I say no. Again hesitantly

Points: Chiefs   Victory: Chiefs


Titans (-7) @ Jets: Without AJ Brown and potentially Julio Jones, Titans will have to go ground and pound against the Jets. This spread line is perfect given the ineptness of the Jets offense. They have to prove to me they can score. Until then, I can't take them at this number

Points: Titans   Victory: Titans


Texans @ Bills (-17): I'm sorry. I know the Bills have gone on a rampage and the Texans are starting Davis Mills. I can't give 17 points away. If they win by more than that, congratulations. I just can't do it.

Points: Texans   Victory: Bills


Giants @ Saints (-7.5) This has the makings of a disaster for the Giants. The Superdome will be rocking in the first game there this year. I am done believing in the Giants. They had their chance last week. If this isn't a double digit victory, I will be stunned.

Points: Saints   Victory: Saints


Panthers @ Cowboys (-4): The Panthers have not really been involved in a shootout game thanks to their great defense. Here might be the first one. The Cowboys are rolling offensively and Carolina's desperate for CBs. (they just traded for one). Not soon enough to bother Dallas. Plus no CMC for the Panthers. Think Dallas wins by a TD.

Points: Cowboys   Victory: Cowboys


Lions @ Bears (-3):  UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It is supposed to be raining at Soldier Field on gameday so the ground game will be crucial. I expect Lions RBs D'Andre Swift and Ty Johnson to have big days. But most of all, I just don't trust the Bears offense or Matt Nagy at all. Give me the Lions to get their first win of the year.

Points: Lions      Victory: Lions


Browns (-2) @ Vikings: PICK'EM!  This to me feels like a "Vegas knows something" line. I know the Vikings beat Seattle last week, but I still don't trust them. And going against a Browns team that seems to be rolling along.... Yeah I don't get why this line is close. Give me the Browns

Victory: Browns


Colts @ Dolphins (-2): PICK'EM #2!  The key to this game is if the Colts can execute better in the red zone than they did against Tennessee. I think they do. And after the brain bending mistakes Miami pulled against the Raiders (the safety in particular) I trust Frank Reich over Brian Flores. Give me the Colts

Victory: Colts


WFT (-1) @ Falcons: PICK'EM #3!  I just don't trust Washington's defense right now. They have probably been the most disappointing unit in the NFL. And I think Matt Ryan will grit themselves to a second straight victory at home. 

Victory: Falcons


Cardinals @ Rams (-4.5): I think there is a chance the Rams might have a bit of a letdown in this game after destroying Tampa Bay. The Cardinals struggled a bit against Jacksonville but pulled away late. But throw in a divisional rivalry and that letdown. I think they keep it close.

Points: Cardinals    Victory: Rams


Seahawks @ 49ers (-3): Like with the Giants, I am approaching the end with Seattle. Their defense is just bad. They are so bad that their offense has the LOWEST time of possession in the NFL. Now that's also because they score quickly. But their defense sucks. I will take the Niners. They should be pissed and they will run it.

Points: Niners     Victory: Niners


Steelers @ Packers (-6.5): I hate my friend for psyching me out of picking the Bengals last week. I wanted to pick them so bad and he talked me out of it. Damn him. I will not make the same mistake this week. With no pass rush against him, Rodgers will make mincemeat of the Steelers defense

Points: Packers    Victory: Packers


Ravens @ Broncos (-1): PICK'EM #4! This is the big test that people have been waiting for with Denver. Can they beat a competent NFL team? What people might not have realized is that they got banged a lot in the Jets win so I don't think they are going to be at full strength so I will take Baltimore to pop their bubble.

Victory: Ravens


Buccaneers (-6.5) @ Patriots: The Return. The Homecoming. Whatever you call it, I think it spells doom for New England. Not because of Tom Brady. Not because of what Tampa Bay is coming in off of, but because of the Buccaneers defensive line against a NE offensive line that has been been very poor in the early going. No James White for the rest of the season for them either so a weapon taken away. I think the Bucs dominate. 

Points: Bucs     Victory: Bucs


Raiders @ Chargers (-3.5): Very interesting game. I think the Chargers win, but there is doubt in my mind. Not enough to pick the Raiders outright, but enough to hedge my bet.

Points: Raiders   Victory: Chargers



No comments:

Post a Comment