Greg's NFL Picks Week #4

 So I continue to creep up the standings. 6-6 against the spread last week and 9-6 in victories.

That brings my season total to:

Points: 10-14

Victories: 18-14 (includes Lions win Thursday Night)

Now onto the picks:

Falcons @ Jaguars (-3): Jags need a bounce back after getting shocked by Houston. Still don't really like Atlanta. I will take the Jags in London

Points: Jaguars    Victory: Jaguars

Commanders @ Eagles (-9):  I still don't think the Eagles have played to their potential and Washington beat them last year. I'm going to split the difference here. I will take the Eagles to win but the Commies with the points.

Points: Commies   Victory: Eagles

Dolphins @ Bills (-2.5): PICK'EM! Game of the week right here. And IMO I think Miami wins. That opening night loss to the Jets still bothers me with Buffalo. This is a show me game for them. They need to show me they can do this. Until then...

Victory: Dolphins

Vikings (-4.5) @ Panthers: Panthers defense disappointed me last week. They were in the game for a bit but couldn't quite beat Seattle. I'll go with Minnesota simply because Cousins has been too good for them to go 0-4.

Points: Vikings    Victory: Vikings

Bengals @ Titans (-2.5): PICK'EM! Cincy's offense still isn't playing well enough to me but it should be enough to down the woeful Tannehill and the Titans.

Victory: Bengals

Ravens @ Browns (-1): PICK'EM! Tough call. I think I'll go with Baltimore. They need a bounce back after last week. And overall I trust Lamar over Deshaun Watson so far this season.

Victory: Ravens

Steelers @ Texans (-3): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!!!!!!!!

This might be a reactionary pick to last week's upset, but the Texans and CJ Stroud have been solid this year. And the Steelers are kind of lucky to be where they are. Their defense has been okay. But they're on the road and I think Houston can win. Again, this might just be reactionary, but I'll try it.

Points: Texans   Victory: Texans

Buccaneers @ Saints (-3):  Two very similar teams. I think I trust Baker over Derek Carr so far. But they're very close. This is probably the sneaky game of the week. I'm going to split the difference because I don't really know.

Points: Buccaneers   Victory: Saints

Rams @ Colts (-1): PICK'EM!  Anthony Richardson will be back for the Colts, and there shouldn't be much of a drop-off. Also, very quietly, Matthew Stafford has thrown the same number of INTs as Zach Wilson with 4. I'll go with Indy to surprisingly get to 3-1.

Victory: Colts

Broncos (-3) @ Bears: The Bears are the worst team in the NFL. By far. Imagine if the Jets had a horrible defense. That's what the Chicago Bears are. Give me Denver because at least they won't have to worry about having 70 put up on them again.

Points: Broncos    Victory: Broncos

Raiders @ Chargers (-5.5): This is tempting me to split. The Raiders defense hasn't been horrible this year and you can't trust the Chargers at all to put their foot down. Reluctantly I will give the points away but I am not completely satisfied with it.

Points: Chargers    Victory: Chargers

Cardinals @ 49ers (-14): Once again, the Cardinals are a double-digit underdog. They are the first team since 1977 to be 3-0 against the spread when they are a double-digit dog. I think they get to 4-0. They play hard and the Niners don't really play a speedup game like Miami does. Give me those points.

Points: Cardinals    Victory: Niners

Patriots @ Cowboys (-6): Wasn't impressed by New England at all against the Jets. Cowboys want to bounce-back after getting blindsided by Arizona. I think the Cowboys win by 7.

Points: Cowboys     Victory: Cowboys

Chiefs (-9) @ Jets: The only reason to watch this game is to see how many times NBC cuts to Taylor Swift in her MetLife suite. I see this being 31-17. Give me the Chiefs

Points: Chiefs    Victory: Chiefs

Seahawks (-1.5) @ Giants: PICK'EM! One stat shows me the way in this game. The Seahawks defense is ranked 29th in the NFL in scoring BUT, in terms of yards allowed per attempt, they are 3rd in the NFL at 2.9 yards per attempt. That is huge against a Giants team that wants to run Saquon and Daniel Jones. The Giants do not have the weaponry to keep up with Seattle in the air. Therefore, I think Seattle will win.

Victory: Seahawks

Greg's NFL Picks Week #3

 Well I did better than I did in Week 1, but still not great. Including my dumb decision to take the Giants' points last night, I went 6-7 on the spread and 10-6 in victories. That brings my total after 2 weeks to:

Points: 10-15

Victories: 18-14

And now for the picks:

Bills (-6.5) @ Commanders: The Bills got healthy against the Raiders and I have the hook of a TD cover. However, I am hesitant because of the weather, the Bills do not have a power running game outside the QB. I think I will stick with Buffalo, but I'm iffy.

Points: Bills   Victory: Bills

Broncos @ Dolphins (-6.5): This is tempting me because Miami's defense has not been great the first two weeks, but Vic Fangio is out for vengeance against his former team. And again, I have a TD cover. Give me Miami.

Points: Dolphins   Victory: Dolphins

Texans @ Jaguars (-8.5): This is slightly scary. but I think Jacksonville needs to beat Houston at home. Houston has the best record at Jacksonville of any of the AFC South teams. And they are slightly banged up. I will take Jacksonville, slightly nervous.

Points: Jaguars    Victory: Jaguars

Falcons @ Lions (-3): Falcons are 2-0, but they don't really feel like a 2-0 team. Detroit needs to bounce back. I think they hand the Falcons their first loss. However, the Lions are really banged up on the defense and the Falcons can run the ball. So I'm going to split the difference.

Points: Falcons    Victory: Lions

Colts @ Ravens (-8): This is a split line for me. I think the Ravens win, but I have problems with the Ravens in terms of covering some numbers. And Gardner Minshew has played well for the Colts. I think the Ravens win by 7 which means I will take the points.

Points: Colts     Victory: Ravens

Patriots (-2.5) @ Jets: PICK'EM! Weather could be a key factor in this game, but it comes down, once again, to showing me. The Jets need to show me they can beat New England. Until then....

Victory: Patriots

Chargers @ Vikings (-1): PICK'EM! Maybe the most entertaining game between two 0-2 teams. I will go with the home team as both teams are basically mirror images of each other.

Victory: Vikings

Titans @ Browns (-3.5): Browns defense will have to go into overdrive in this particular game as Kareem Hunt gets into form replacing Nick Chubb. And Tennessee is susceptible to turnovers in bunches as they have shown this year. I will take the Browns

Points: Browns   Victory: Browns

Saints @ Packers (-1) PICK'EM! Despite their defensive collapse at Atlanta, I still like the Packers. Jordan Love has been pretty good for them in the early going. I will take the Packers. 

Victory: Packers

Panthers @ Seahawks (-5.5): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!!!!!!

For the second week in a row, Seattle is involved, only this time, they are going to get knocked off. Coming off a big win at Detroit, there might be a little letdown. But there are two major factors for me. One, Seattle is REALLY banged up on both sides of the ball. Secondly, Andy Dalton is getting the start instead of Bryce Young for Carolina. He should handle the atmosphere better. Panthers are going to win a game eventually and this is it.

Points: Panthers    Victory: Panthers

Cowboys (-12.5) @ Cardinals: The Cardinals have been game for the first two weeks. That number is a bit too high to me. Especially at home. Cowboys win, but probably by ten points.

Points: Cardinals   Victory: Cowboys

Bears @ Chiefs (-12.5): If you've had a bad week, rest assured the Chicago Bears have had a worse week. Fields calls out the coaches publicly. their DC is forced to resign after the FBI raids his house, and crooks break into Soldier Field and steal 100k worth of equipment. And the bad week will culminate in a drubbing at Kansas City.

Points: Chiefs    Victory: Chiefs

Steelers @ Raiders (-2.5): PICK'EM! This is a toss up for me. Both teams are kind of meh. I'll go with the Raiders because Jimmy G has shown me more than Kenny Pickett so far.

Victory: Raiders

Eagles (-5) @ Buccaneers: Bucs are the surprise here at 2-0, but I think they get a rude awakening on Monday night. Eagles really haven't played great, but that could be a motivator for them to keep up the pressure. I will take the Eagles because they have the proven track record. But....... I will play it a bit safe by splitting the difference.

Points: Bucs     Victory: Eagles

Rams @ Bengals (-2.5): PICK'EM! Go time for the Bengals. They have to win this game. I think they will, but it will be uncomfortable.

Victory: Bengals

Greg's NFL Picks Week 2

 A HORRIBLE WEEK 1 for me!

4-6 in the spread column and just 8-8 in the victory column. I was bitten by a few points here and there but there's no excuse. Then again, Week 1 is a bit of a flukey week. I will (have taken) the Eagles -6 in the Thursday Night game over the Vikings. And now to my main Week 2 picks:

Chiefs (-3.5) @ Jaguars: This would have been a prime upset/trap game if the Chiefs had won week 1. But having lost Week 1, and now seemingly having Chris Jones back in the fold, I will take the Chiefs to bounce back.

Points: Chiefs   Victory: Chiefs

Raiders @ Bills (-8.5): That spread is a little too much for me. I think Buffalo will win but I can't trust them to blow out a solid Raiders team coming off a win at Denver. Split the difference.

Points: Raiders   Victory: Bills

Ravens @ Bengals (-3.5): I want to pick the Ravens so badly. But their line and defense are banged up (as seemingly they always are) and the Bengals are at home trying to bounce back after a loss to Cleveland. I might have a hook problem, but I will take the Bengals.

Points: Bengals   Victory: Bengals

Seahawks @ Lions (-5.5): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!!!!!!

 The Lions didn't really play great against the Chiefs if you look at it. They were clutch and took advantage of some poor Chiefs recievers. Seattle needs this win after laying an egg at home against the Rams. Last year, Seattle won in a shootout in Detroit. I think roughly the same thing will happen.

Points: Seahawks   Victory: Seahawks

Chargers (-3) @ Titans: Ryan Tannehill is awful. Give me the Chargers to get to 1-1

Points: Chargers    Victory: Chargers

Packers @ Falcons (-1.5): PICK'EM! This game's line changed very quickly with the news that Aaron Jones, the Packers great RB is injured. But I'll be honest. I think Jordan Love might be for real. And Atlanta did not play GREAT against Carolina. Give me the Packers on the road

Victory: Packers

Bears @ Buccaneers (-2.5): PICK'EM! The Bears are a coaching mess. I don't trust them at all. Give me Tampa to eke by.

Victory: Bucs

Colts @ Texans (-1.5): PICK'EM! This line bothers me. The Colts played decently against Jacksonville, surprisingly so. But I wonder if Vegas knows something. I'm going with the Texans, suspiciously.

Victory: Texans

Niners (-7.5) @ Rams: This is a case where the hook scares me. I think the Niners will win. but the Rams showed up well against Seattle and the fact that it's 7.5 instead of 7 bothers me. I will take the Niners to win BUT because of the hook and the way the Rams looked in Seattle, I will take the points

Points: Rams   Victory: Niners

Giants (-4) @ Cardinals: Giants need this game badly and they know it. I think they will come out with an intensity to wash away the stench of that Week 1 drubbing by Dallas. If the Giants don't win this game, their season is likely over because of their schedule. I'll take the Giants.

Points: Giants   Victory: Giants

Jets @ Cowboys (-9): I'm holding my nose here and taking the Cowboys with the points. This is going to be a low scoring game. Both teams have injuries offensively. I see this game as close for 3 quarters and Dallas pulling away late. Reluctantly, I will give points away.

Points: Cowboys   Victory: Cowboys

Commanders @ Broncos (-3.5): I want to take the Commies badly, but I don't think I can do it. Denver's going to be desperate, and Russell Wilson did play okay. I'll take Denver, barely.

Points: Broncos   Victory: Broncos

Dolphins (-3) @ Patriots: The Pats are equipped to defeat Miami with a strong running game, and that's the only chance they will have to control the game. Honestly this game could go either way. I'm going to split the difference. I will take Miami but take the points also.

Points: Patriots   Victory: Dolphins

Saints (-3) @ Panthers: Saints played meh and won against the Titans. I think they will play better against the rookie QB in Carolina

Points: Saints   Victory: Saints

Browns (-2.5) @ Steelers: PICK'EM! Steelers really disappointed me last week. They have to earn my trust back. Give me the Browns to ride some momentum and get to 2-0 in the division.

Thoughts following Bills/Jet

 I have had the inclination to write some things regarding last night Bills/Jets game in bullet point fashion, because I have a lot to say about it.

1. I have thought for several years that fans should try not to have specific expectations going into a season. Sports in general are too random and too fragile to have such a thing as "Super Bowl or bust", "World Series or bust" etc. And last night showed that. The Jets went from possible Super Bowl contender to barely contending in the playoffs in 4 snaps. That is how fragile sports is. That combined with the fact that I never really dived in with the Jets/Rodgers hype meant that I took the injury with a shrug. But I feel bad for a lot of legitimate fans that bought all in and feel like their hearts are ripped out. I just don't want to hear them on a loop i.e. social media and sports talk radio.

2. I am beginning to believe that Metlife Stadium was built on an ancient Indian burial ground. Think about it, the Jets and Giants have mostly been bad the past 10 years the stadium has been open. Both (as well as visiting teams) have had numerous injuries on the turf there. They actually changed out the turf for this year because of that fact. Well, that didn't help at all. 

3. The Jets are tough are gritty. They could have easily just given up and got blown out. They didn't and now they have bought themselves a little time to try and find another QB. If they had lost to Buffalo, next week at Dallas would have been a must win and they would have most likely gone down the drain. Instead. they probably are going to be blown out by Dallas, and still only be 1-1. That's huge for them. Again, they're not going to the Super Bowl, but can they have a nice season? Yeah. Their roster is that good.

4. Now to the Bills. They have several problems. So maybe I should indent further.

    

   a: The Jets have their number, at least defensively. The last 6 games they've played, the Bills have struggled on offense against them. They have pulled away late at times, but they have not played great against them. Especially Josh Allen (get to that in a moment)

  b: After Rodgers went down, the Bills should have just stacked the box and forced Zach Wilson to beat them. Instead, they give up 28 carries for 172 yards. Most of that was Breece Hall, who looked pretty damn good off of an injury. And I have to be honest, Wilson's stat line was not egregiously bad. A lot of safe throws and he did have his bonehead pick, but he certainly outplayed the Bills QB... (Here it comes)

c: Josh Allen misses Brian Daboll. That's all there is to it. When Daboll was there, Allen was not turning the ball over as much and more in control. And this is not one game, this happened last year too. Also, not a coincidence that in the first season as Giants HC, Daniel Jones saw his turnovers decrease dramatically. That is why, although, it is just one Week 1 loss for the Bills, I would be concerned about them because it's continuing the pattern from last year. That is why I think they are the 3rd best team in the AFC at the moment (maybe even 4th if Miami continues to be legit). 

Greg's NFL 2023 Picks: Week 1

         Yes, I am back with 2023 NFL picks. The rules, as you remember, are quite simple. If the spread is under 3 points. I classify it as a pick'em game. I (most of the time) have one upset pick of the week, which features a spread of more than 3 points. I pick the spread winner and the actual victor. With those rules in place and using the odds that are set by the Draftkings Sportsbook; Let us begin.

Texans @ Ravens (-10): I have had problems with the Ravens in the past in terms of spreads, but the Texans are going to be without their RT. And I think the new OC of the Ravens wants to make a statement.

Points: Ravens    Victory: Ravens

Buccaneers @ Vikings (-5.5): Vikings have a new DC in. I think they will play it up. The spread is just right for me to stay with the home team

Points: Vikings   Victory: Vikings

Niners (-2) @ Steelers: PICK'EM! Sneaky good game. Niners should win, now that Bosa is back in the fold, but I think it will be a low scoring affair. I will take the Niners to sneak by.

Victory: Niners

Bengals (-2.5) @ Browns: PICK'EM! This would have been my upset pick of the week if it was a 3 point spread. Burrow didn't really play in the preseason so he's a bit rusty. It's a road game at Cleveland. The Bengals last year also got off to a slow start. I think the Browns will come out and win at home

Victory: Browns

Jaguars (-5) @ Colts: Give me the Jaguars all the way. No Taylor for the Colts, a rookie QB. I think the Jags are going to romp'em.

Points: Jaguars   Victory: Jaguars

Titans @ Saints (-3): I'll lean New Orleans because of the home advantage. Both teams are relatively healthy, but Carr in his new home will prevail

Points: Saints   Victory: Saints

Panthers @ Falcons (-3.5): Carolina better pray their offensive line is much better than they looked in the preseason because Bryce Young will get destroyed. I will take Atlanta.

Points: Falcons   Victory: Falcons 

Cardinals @ Commanders (-7): The Commies have a new owner, they're getting the crowds back there, and the Cardinals are in the process of a semi-tank. The spread concerns me a bit, but I will trust the Commies at home

Points: Commies    Victory: Commies

Eagles (-4) @ Patriots: UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!!!!!!!!!

When an offense does very well one season, the NFL usually goes to school on it to see if they can stop it. Eagles were so good offensively last year and now they get Belichick in Week 1. Patriots also have BoB back at offensive coordinator, so Mac Jones should be better. I will take New England over Philadelphia at Gillette

Points: Patriots    Victory: Patriots

Dolphins @ Chargers (-3): Vic Fangio should be an improvement for the Dolphins defense, but the Dolphins secondary is banged up. This could be a shootout. I'm going to play it safe. I will take the Dolphins with the points, but the Chargers to win.

Points: Dolphins   Victory: Chargers

Rams @ Seahawks (-5): The piper has come for the Rams, leaving them with some high-priced players and a lot of questionable depth. Seattle, if they are serious on continuing the progress they made last year, should handle them.

Points: Seahawks   Victory: Seahawks

Packers @ Bears (-1.5): PICK'EM! Now that Aaron Rodgers is gone, do the Packers still own the Bears? I don't think so. If the Bears want to take another step, this is a game they should win. I will take the Bears, although I feel meh about it.

Victory: Bears

Raiders @ Broncos (-3.5): I think the Broncos should win in the home debut for Sean Payton, but the hook scares me a bit. I'll take the Broncs and give the points, but I feel uneasy about it.

Points: Broncos   Victory: Broncos

Cowboys (-3.5) @ Giants: News broke today that Darren Waller has a hamstring injury which is huge because he was brought in to be their main weapon. The Giants have to show me they can beat Dallas. so until then, I will go with Dallas. BUT, these games are usually close, so I will split the difference.

Points: Giants   Victory: Cowboys

Bills (-2.5) @ Jets: PICK'EM! I lean Buffalo because they have played together longer and I think Rodgers will struggle a bit to begin within the Jets offense. But honestly, I wouldn't be surprised either way. Close game, but I lean Buffalo because of the experience.

Victory: Bills