Friday, September 29, 2023

Greg's NFL Picks Week #4

 So I continue to creep up the standings. 6-6 against the spread last week and 9-6 in victories.
That brings my season total to:

Points: 10-14

Victories: 18-14 (includes Lions win Thursday Night)

Now onto the picks:

Falcons @ Jaguars (-3): Jags need a bounce back after getting shocked by Houston. Still don't really like Atlanta. I will take the Jags in London

Points: Jaguars    Victory: Jaguars


Commanders @ Eagles (-9):  I still don't think the Eagles have played to their potential and Washington beat them last year. I'm going to split the difference here. I will take the Eagles to win but the Commies with the points.

Points: Commies   Victory: Eagles


Dolphins @ Bills (-2.5): PICK'EM! Game of the week right here. And IMO I think Miami wins. That opening night loss to the Jets still bothers me with Buffalo. This is a show me game for them. They need to show me they can do this. Until then...

Victory: Dolphins


Vikings (-4.5) @ Panthers: Panthers defense disappointed me last week. They were in the game for a bit but couldn't quite beat Seattle. I'll go with Minnesota simply because Cousins has been too good for them to go 0-4.

Points: Vikings    Victory: Vikings


Bengals @ Titans (-2.5): PICK'EM! Cincy's offense still isn't playing well enough to me but it should be enough to down the woeful Tannehill and the Titans.

Victory: Bengals


Ravens @ Browns (-1): PICK'EM! Tough call. I think I'll go with Baltimore. They need a bounce back after last week. And overall I trust Lamar over Deshaun Watson so far this season.

Victory: Ravens


Steelers @ Texans (-3): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!!!!!!!!
This might be a reactionary pick to last week's upset, but the Texans and CJ Stroud have been solid this year. And the Steelers are kind of lucky to be where they are. Their defense has been okay. But they're on the road and I think Houston can win. Again, this might just be reactionary, but I'll try it.

Points: Texans   Victory: Texans


Buccaneers @ Saints (-3):  Two very similar teams. I think I trust Baker over Derek Carr so far. But they're very close. This is probably the sneaky game of the week. I'm going to split the difference because I don't really know.

Points: Buccaneers   Victory: Saints


Rams @ Colts (-1): PICK'EM!  Anthony Richardson will be back for the Colts, and there shouldn't be much of a drop-off. Also, very quietly, Matthew Stafford has thrown the same number of INTs as Zach Wilson with 4. I'll go with Indy to surprisingly get to 3-1.

Victory: Colts


Broncos (-3) @ Bears: The Bears are the worst team in the NFL. By far. Imagine if the Jets had a horrible defense. That's what the Chicago Bears are. Give me Denver because at least they won't have to worry about having 70 put up on them again.

Points: Broncos    Victory: Broncos


Raiders @ Chargers (-5.5): This is tempting me to split. The Raiders defense hasn't been horrible this year and you can't trust the Chargers at all to put their foot down. Reluctantly I will give the points away but I am not completely satisfied with it.

Points: Chargers    Victory: Chargers


Cardinals @ 49ers (-14): Once again, the Cardinals are a double-digit underdog. They are the first team since 1977 to be 3-0 against the spread when they are a double-digit dog. I think they get to 4-0. They play hard and the Niners don't really play a speedup game like Miami does. Give me those points.

Points: Cardinals    Victory: Niners


Patriots @ Cowboys (-6): Wasn't impressed by New England at all against the Jets. Cowboys want to bounce-back after getting blindsided by Arizona. I think the Cowboys win by 7.

Points: Cowboys     Victory: Cowboys


Chiefs (-9) @ Jets: The only reason to watch this game is to see how many times NBC cuts to Taylor Swift in her MetLife suite. I see this being 31-17. Give me the Chiefs

Points: Chiefs    Victory: Chiefs


Seahawks (-1.5) @ Giants: PICK'EM! One stat shows me the way in this game. The Seahawks defense is ranked 29th in the NFL in scoring BUT, in terms of yards allowed per attempt, they are 3rd in the NFL at 2.9 yards per attempt. That is huge against a Giants team that wants to run Saquon and Daniel Jones. The Giants do not have the weaponry to keep up with Seattle in the air. Therefore, I think Seattle will win.

Victory: Seahawks

















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