Greg's 2021 NFL Picks: Week 14

 I told people that last week's point spreads were absolute garbage. And I was proven correct. A miserable 3-8 against the spread while going 12-3 in the victory column. That means I got most of the games right while missing a lot of the spreads. It's hard when a lot of the games are either very close or have wide spreads. I like my spreads a lot in the middle. Anyway my season totals now come to:

Points: 81-96

Victories: 139-81

So let's give it another go, shall we?

49ers (-3) @ Titans: Niners now seem to be fully back and rolling while Tennessee is still trying to figure things out. They get AJ Brown back but I don't know. Tannehill has been shaky. Give me the Niners with a road win.

Points: Niners   Victory: Niners

Browns @ Packers (-7.5): The Browns are basically dead men walking at this point. The hook is scary but without Myles Garrett providing pressure, the Packers might be in full command. I will take the Packers

Points: Packers    Victory: Packers

Colts @ Cardinals (-1): PICK'EM! I can't think the Cardinals, after being humiliated by the Lions last week, will be caught on the off foot again. And I think Vegas thinks the same way. They will bring it in this game. I will take the Cardinals in a close one.

Victory: Cardinals

Chargers (-10) @ Texans: Davis Mills has very quietly been okay for the Texans, at least comparable to the meh performances of the other rookie QBs. The number is interesting because the Chargers might be looking ahead a bit. But after a bad loss to KC, I will take the Chargers hesitantly.

Points: Chargers   Victory: Chargers

Rams (-3) @ Vikings: Rams appear to be getting healthy at the right time. They're even getting Cam Akers back after an Achilles tear. However the Vikings have played so many close games this year, that I could see them losing on a last second FG, which would kill me. This is why I am going to split this one, even with the low spread.

Points: Vikings    Victory: Rams

Buccaneers (-10) @ Panthers: This is a tough number because Brady and company are walking very wounded with no Chris Godwin or Leonard Fournette. I know the Panthers are sucky offensively, but their defense is not horribly and without those weapons.... I think the Panthers keep this under the spread.

Points: Panthers   Victory: Buccaneers

Bills @ Patriots (-2.5): PICK'EM #2 I wonder how rare it is that Bill Belichick has lost back to back games in December. My guess is not very often. That's usually when his teams start to roll. This is it for the Bills. They need this game and then they can kind of coast to the division. I think the home field plays in this game and the Pats win a close one. 

Victory: Pats

Giants @ Eagles (-10): I know the Giants are getting healthy, but I trusted them last week and got nothing. And Philly wants revenge for blowing that easy game against them a couple of weeks ago. Give me the Eagles to cover.

Points: Eagles   Victory: Eagles

Ravens @ Bengals (-3): Don "Wink" Martindale (as a game show fan, love this nickname) says they aren't doubling JaMarr Chase. Why would you say that prior to a game and make it open knowledge? Just fot that, I hope the Bengals crush them.

Points: Bengals   Victory: Bengals

Lions @ Falcons (-6): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!

The Lions are on a roll, that's to be sure, but I'm wondering about Atlanta. They are 6-8 and just got knocked around by the Niners. They know they are now longshots to make the playoffs. I don't know how they react to that. I know how the Lions will play but not Atlanta, So the upset pick it is.

Points: Lions    Victory: Lions

Jaguars @ Jets: PICK'EM #3. The Jets were originally a favorite in this game but COVID struck so the line has moved all the way down to a straight pick'em. Wouldn't be shocked if this game ends up being moved if more players. Either way, the Jets run defense is the worst I've ever seen. If James Robinson gets enough carries, the Jags will win.

Victory: Jags

Bears @ Seahawks (-6.5):  The hook here makes the line very enticing. Two struggling offenses, but Seattle is more experienced and a raucous home crowd could spook Justin Fields. I will go with Seattle to just cover

Points: Seahawks    Victory: Seahawks

Broncos (-1) @ Raiders: PICK'EM #4: This is a "Vegas has a feeling line" Broncos without Teddy Bridgewater on the road in Vegas; a 1 point favorite? It's a pick'em, so I'm free to roam. I think the Raiders win this easily as they continue to stay alive in the AFC playoff race.

Victory: Raiders

Steelers @ Chiefs (-8.5): I know the Chiefs haven't been great with the number, but I think they are rolling now and will destroy the Steelers.

Points: Chiefs   Victory: Chiefs

WFT @ Cowboys (-10.5): This scares me a bit because Dallas seems to be struggling offensively. But Washington is so banged up and Gilbert couldn't move the ball for the most part against Philly; they needed some luck to get up. I'm torn so I will split and play for 10 

Points: WFT     Victory: Cowboys

Dolphins (-1.5) @ Saints: PICK'EM #5! This to me is easy. This will be a low scoring affair between two good defenses. But in the end, I will trust Tua over Ian Book. 

Victory: Dolphins

Greg's 2021 NFL Picks: Week 14

 So there's two big things to mention this week. One is that I rolled right through the week last week, going 7-4 against the spread and a damn good 10-3 in victories. The bad news is that COVID has begun to ravage the NFL so that might be a problem with the odds, especially on a Thursday when I pick these games. I will do my best given the knowledge I have at the present moment. I will also keep my explanations brief, because quite honestly, I find it hard to get enthused for certain games. 

Anyway, my seasonal record:

Points: 77-88

Victories: 126-78

And now with the help of the Draftkings Sportsbook, let's rock

Chiefs (-3) @ Chargers: Big game for the Chargers to see if they truly belong amongst the AFC elite. Chargers however are without their best RB which will hurt them in terms of possessing the football. I think the Chiefs squeak by, but to hedge my bet...

Points: Chargers     Victory: Chiefs

Raiders (-1.5) @ Browns: PICK'EM! There are a lot of bad spreads this week, and it's all fluid because of COVID. The Browns are COVID hell missing a lot of people (including Baker Mayfield not from COVID). I think the Raiders get desperate and win this game

Victory: Raiders

Patriots @ Colts (-2): PICK'EM #2! Key test for Mac Jones to see if he can handle an intense road atmosphere. If Carson Wentz continues to play the way he has, they will win because even the Pats limit Taylor, the Colts will have options. Give me the Colts

Victory: Colts

Cardinals (-12.5) @ Lions: Worst thing that could have happened to Lions was the Cardinals losing on Monday night. Now they come out focused and intent on crushing Detroit. Give me the Cards, even with the big spread.

Points: Cardinals    Victory: Cardinals

Cowboys (-11) @ Giants: Thought for a second about divisional pride and the Cowboys being a little banged up. I'm going to take a chance. I think this game is within 10 points. So I will take the points here.

Points: Giants   Victory: Cowboys

Panthers @ Bills (-11): Bills showed gumption against Tampa but came up short. I think they carry that momentum against Carolina who are just blah. Give those points away.

Points: Bills     Victory: Bills

WFT @ Eagles (-9.5): Washington has been destroyed by COVID and other injuries which has led to this big of a spread. I think if they were healthier, I would give them a chance, but I think the Eagles just wear them out and win by 10.

Points: Eagles    Victory: Eagles

Jets @ Dolphins (-9.5): This is also tempting because Miami might be without Jaylen Waddle and several RBs but their defense has been lights out recently so I don't think the Jets score enough. They also win by 10.

Points: Dolphins   Victory: Dolphins

Titans (-1) @ Steelers: PICK'EM #3! Honestly, I don't know if Tennessee has the running game left to gash the Steelers defense like Minnesota did last Thursday. I think the Steelers are proud enough that they will reach down and get a victory just to keep themselves alive

Victory: Steelers

Texans @ Jaguars (-3.5): Now that the horrible stench of Urban Meyer is gone from Jacksonville, maybe they can get themselves together and win a few games. Texans are tanking, I think they give in and give the Jags something to cheer about.

Points: Jags   Victory: Jaguars

Falcons @ 49ers (-9.5): I still don't believe in the Niners. It's very weird. Kittle being back has transformed their offense. But something is telling me that the Falcons will keep this close. I don't know, this one has me baffled. I'll give the points, but something's nagging at me.

Points: Niners     Victory: Niners

Bengals @ Broncos (-2.5): PSEUDO UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK!!!!!!!!!!!

This week is so bad spread wise and game wise for that matter that I have to break one of my pet peeves and go for a pick'em upset in my book. Bengals will be desperate and I think they will beat Denver. I just think Burrow will be more dynamic than Bridgewater,

Victory: Bengals

Packers @ Ravens (-5.5): When a QB that is strong running the football injures his legs, that's a bad sign. Lamar might play, but I don't think he will be that effective. Packers ROLL.

Points: Packers     Victory: Packers

Seahawks @ Rams (-5.5):  I considered Seattle for a legit upset pick of the week, but I don't know if they are healthy enough to pull it off. Plus they are on the road. I will be cautious though because there can be legit concern for a Rams letdown. So I will take the points and hedge

Points: Seahawks    Victory: Rams

Saints @ Buccaneers (-11): This is a revenge game for the Bucs and I think they will use it. Saints were not impressive against the Jets, and I think the Bucs will beat their skulls in.

Points: Bucs    Victory: Bucs

Vikings (-4.5) @ Bears: I know the Vikings can be a bit shaky but they should beat the Bears up.

Points: Vikings    Victory: Vikings

Greg's 2021 NFL Picks: Week 13

As we hit unlucky 13, it is for me to say that I got a bit unlucky on some of my picks last week. The one I barely missed was the Bucs Falcons game. Bucs were giving 11 and they won by 13. I started off hot but sputtered during the late games. As such I went 6-7 against the spread and 9-5 in the victory column. That brings my season total to:

Points: 70-84

Victories: 116-75

So once again, using the Draftkings Sportsbook for the odds, let us speculate.

Steelers @ Vikings (-3): The Vikings should be embarrassed at what happened to them last week. They had the Lions 4th and goal and they blew it. The Steelers squeaked past the Ravens, but there is a big problem. They are without their #1 corner Joe Haden, which should leave it open for Thielen. Plus Dalvin Cook is scheduled to return. I know Cousins has sucked in primetime games, but I'm going with Minnesota to sneak by.

Points: Vikings    Victory: Vikings

Cowboys (-4.5) @ WFT: I am aching in myself to make this the upset pick of the week. Cowboys are banged up, especially at running back and Washington is on a roll. But there's something holding me back. I think it's just the feeling that the Cowboys aren't going to lose to this team, right? I am petrified of this game. So petrified that I am going to split the decision.

Points: WFT    Victory: Cowboys

Ravens @ Browns (-3): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKK!!!!!!!!!!!

The mystery box that is the Baltimore Ravens is coming off a horrific loss to the Steelers. So naturally, I think they will bounce back with a good effort against Cleveland. I think Cleveland can slow them down, but Landry is questionable, meaning Baker Mayfield will not have a lot to work with. I think the Ravens bounce back and send Cleveland under .500

Points: Ravens   Victory: Ravens

Raiders @ Chiefs (-9.5): So last week, I got burned for falling into the "Division" trap and the Chiefs absolutely manhandled the Broncos. Should I go back to that well. Vegas, I think, is better than Denver, So I think the game should be closer. The hook is interesting here. I can see the Chiefs winning by 10 so I will take the Chiefs slightly with the points.

Points: Chiefs    Victory: Chiefs

Falcons @ Panthers (-2.5): PICK'EM! These two teams are bad. Falcons have squeaked by some games though and have shown gumption, while Carolina seems to be in self-destruct mode. Give me the Falcons.

Victory: Falcons

Jaguars @ Titans (-8.5): I don't care if the Titans are shot to hell, they'll cover. I'm done thinking about Jacksonville. they suck.

Points: Titans    Victory: Titans

Saints (-5.5) @ Jets:  This is going to be an ugly game. Saints will have Kamara back, but he hasn't really had a great year. Ingram will be a big loss because he's the back that they use for screens and the Jets really struggle against screens. There is also a chance of ice. I think the Saints win, but I don't think they cover, especially if Zach Wilson continues to improve. 

Points: Jets    Victory: Saints

Seahawks (-8.5) @ Texans:  This is just like the Jaguars game. I don't trust Houston one bit. I know Seattle is hurting. I don't care. Houston looks like they've given up. Seattle easy.

Points: Seahawks   Victory: Seahawks

Giants @ Chargers (-10): I think it's very possible the Chargers could come in with a risk for a letdown. But then I see the Giants and think "NAAAAH" Even if the Giants defense slows down Herbert, they can't score the football. Might be a bit of a slog at first, but Chargers pull away for a dominant victory.

Points: Chargers    Victory: Chargers

Lions @ Broncos (-10): I think the Broncos will win this game, but I think the Lions, basking in the glow of their first win, will keep it a little closer than 10 points. Which means, of course, the Lions will get blown out again. So it is written and so shall it be done.

Points: Lions    Victory: Broncos

Bills @ Buccaneers (-3.5):  So after the Bills get run over (literally) by New England, they then have to face their other tormentor immediately the next week in Tom Brady. The Bills have basically been on tilt for the last 6 weeks or so. Talent has gotten them by, but not all the time. They are in trouble. And I think Tom Brady smells blood. I will take the Bucs by at least 6 points.

Points: Bucs     Victory: Bucs

49ers (-2) @ Bengals: PICK'EM #2! This is a suspicious line to me. They're both coming off of bad losses. The Bengals are playing at home. They are relatively healthy. The Niners aren't really that flashy. And they're a 2 point favorite? I'll take the Bengals because I think they're the better team. Thank you very much.

Victory: Bengals

Bears @ Packers (-12.5): I don't like Matt Nagy's chances here. Rodgers will take ownership again and win. Bears don't have a ton of their weapons. I will take the Packers to pound the Bears.

Points: Packers   Victory: Packers

Rams @ Cardinals (-2): PICK'EM #3!  A dominating victory against the Jaguars doesn't quite make me trust in the Rams enough, especially if the Cardinals are now back to full strength and are rolling. The Cardinals probably are the quietest best record team in NFL history. And I think they will continue.

Victory: Cardinals

Greg's 2021 NFL Picks- Week 13

 Well, it took the expectation of turkey to bring out the best in my football predicting mind. A major bounce back for me this week as I go 6-3 against the spread and 9-6 in the victory column. That raises my season total to:

Points: 64-77

Victories: 107-70

Plus, I just missed my upset pick of the week (Screw you Lions) but I got my upset pick adjacent correct (Yay Jets). Not much for more to me to say except I use the Draftkings Sportsbook for these odds. Let's begin

Cowboys (-6) @ Saints: The Saints are really banged up and the Cowboys will missing a lot of their coaches, which some people believe will help the Cowboys instead of hindering them. The Saints defense is good, but I think the Cowboys realize that they need this game and will rise to the occasion. Without Kamara, I don't know how they hold onto the ball. Hesitantly, I'll give the points away.

Points: Cowboys   Victory: Cowboys

Buccaneers (-11) @ Falcons: The Falcons are hanging on for dear life in the NFC wild card race and will put out their best effort to stay in it. I don't know what the mindset for the Bucs is. They seem to be very mercurial about their output. I think they win, but I'm not sure that they cover.

Points: Falcons   Victory: Bucs

Colts (-9.5) @ Texans: The Texans are garbage. The Jets spotted them a 14-3 lead and they blew it. Colts are on a roll, even in a losing effort. I expect the Colts to roll

Points: Colts    Victory: Colts

Cardinals (-7.5) @ Bears: The hook is a bit scary, but I don't believe in the Bears for one minute after beating the Lions. The Cardinals are undefeated on the road and I expect them to stay that way, Kyler or not. Again, the hook scares me a touch but I will take the Cardinals

Points: Cardinals     Victory: Cardinals

Vikings (-7) @ Lions: Interesting line here. Vikings have played well and the Lions are low. If they had beaten the Niners, this might be a sneaky upset pick of the week, But I have to believe the Vikings will have their foot on the pedal, even losing Dalvin Cook. I can't trust the Lions to win a game until they actually do it. Gimme the Vikings

Points: Vikings    Victory: Vikings

Eagles (-7) @ Jets: It looks Jalen Hurts will play on his sprained ankle, which might slow him down a bit, but they should still be able to run the football. This is a bit of a show me game for the Jets defense. They stopped Houston pretty nicely, but they have to prove they can put back to back solid performances in a row. Until they do, I can't buy into them

Points: Eagles    Victory: Eagles

Giants @ Dolphins (-4.5): Right now, it's up in the air whether Daniel Jones will play, but will it even matter? The Fins' defense has finally found its 2020 form. And Tua seems to have settled in for Miami to make a playoff push. This line should be a bit higher. 

Points: Dolphins    Victory: Dolphins

Chargers @ Bengals (-3): UPSET PICK OF THE WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKKK!!!!!!

This game is all about desperation. The Chargers are stuck in the wild wild AFC West tied with Vegas and Denver. Coming off of a divisional loss, they NEED to win this game. The Bengals, on the other hand, are coming off a major blowout of the Steelers. Letdown possibility? You bet. Give me the Chargers to take the game they need.

Points: Chargers     Victory: Chargers

WFT@ Raiders (-2.5): PICK'EM!  I don't know if any of you follow any football related stories but there is a Raiders fan on Reddit who has predicted every Raiders game correctly this year via a coin flip. So far this fan has been perfect. The coin flip this week has the Raiders beating Washington. So I will either bask in the glory of this madness or end it entirely. I will take the Raiders.

Victory: Raiders

Jaguars @ Rams (-12.5): Rams get the Jaguars at exactly the right time. However, do the Rams deserve that big of a line? I'm not exactly sure. I'm going to stick my neck out here a bit and split it. I will take the points. God have mercy on me.

Points: Jaguars   Victory: Rams

49ers (-3.5) @ Seahawks: Two teams going in completely different directions. Niners have begun to find themselves, kind of like Miami. Seattle is going downhill and they don't even have a top draft pick to compensate for it. If the Niners are truly back, they should kick the crap out of Seattle. And that's what I think they will do.

Points: Niners    Victory: Niners

Ravens (-4) @ Steelers:  Just like with the Eagles and Jets, I don't know if Pittsburgh's defense is healthy or good enough to slow down Baltimore to get to Lamar's weakness. I think the Ravens put the death knell in the Steelers' season here.

Points: Ravens    Victory: Ravens

Broncos @ Chiefs (-9.5): I still don't know if I can trust the Chiefs offensively. So to me, that spread is a bit too high, especially against a divisional opponent. I do think the Chiefs win,but give me Denver with the points.

Points: Broncos    Victory: Chiefs

Patriots @ Bills (-3):  Seems to me that the Bills have basically been sleepwalking until this game. They got out to such a big divisional lead that they seemed to get a little complacent in their executions. This is a game they need to win for their own psyche, not only in the division, but in the conference. I think the Bills get it done. BUT, to be safe, I will split it.

Points: Pats    Victory: Bills